Cal football bowl scenarios: LA, or LA?
Will the California Golden Bears head to the Independence Bowl or the Los Angeles Bowl?
The California Golden Bears will be playing in a bowl game. The likeliest spot they would end up in is a bowl game on December 16.
Technically the bowl order is a bit chaotic
College football playoff: The Pac-12 championship winner. Either Oregon or Washington
New Year’s Six Bowl (likely the Fiesta): The Pac-12 title loser. Either Oregon or Washington
Alamo Bowl: The Arizona Wildcats are a lock. They’re not getting into the New Year’s Six and they have cleared the rest of the Pac-12 with two more conference wins.
Vegas, Holiday, Sun: Technically Cal is in range with a 4-5 Pac-12 record—tiebreakers mandate that any 5-4/4-5 team can be picked. But it’d be tough to imagine 6-6 Cal sneaking up into this bracket above two 8-4 teams and the marquee name in the conference. The Bears travel well to bowl games, but not that well. Expect USC, Utah, and Oregon State to be picked in some order. But with much of Oregon State’s coaching staff gone and Caleb Williams unlikely to play.
My guess: The Vegas Bowl will take Utah—the Utes travel well and generate solid ratings and always play well. With no Caleb Williams, Oregon State then ends up in the Holiday Bowl, with USC falling to the Sun.
So where does that leave the Bears?
Los Angeles Bowl, 4:30 PM PST, ABC
The Los Angeles Bowl is certainly the preference for most Cal fans, and there is some appeal here. The Bears have already proven they travel well to SoCal after splitting the Rose Bowl nearly 50-50 last week in their UCLA victory.
Unfortunately, their competition is UCLA. While enthusiasm is very low for UCLA football stumbling to a 7-5 finish, the Bruins would still be in their home city and draw fairly well on TV.
This would almost certainly have to be a momentum play—Cal has won their final three and dumptrucked the Bruins in the season finale. UCLA has lost three of four and averaged 8 points a game in those losses.
This pick might hinge on the health of Ethan Garbers, who was knocked out against Cal with what looked like an arm injury—the Bruins simply have looked horrendous when he is not playing. UCLA would be far less appealing if they can’t guarantee his status.
The Bears or Bruins would likely play the Mountain West Champion, either Boise State or UNLV.
Independence Bowl, 6:15 PM PST, ESPN
Who wants to get a head start on cross country trips?
Shreveport, Louisiana isn’t quite as appealing as a trip across California. But the team that doesn’t get picked by the LA Bowl is headed to the South to finish up 2023. So by default, if UCLA ends up going to SoFi, Cal will end up in the Bayou.
It’ll be a bit stiffer competition. Cal will play a Big 12 team. It’s unclear which opponent. UCF, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Kansas State have all been projected.
But it’ll definitely be a harder fan draw for fans from out West. I’d imagine this would be a semi-road game if anything, particularly if a Texas or Midwest team is drawn.
Is there anything Cal fans can do to influence bowl determination?
I would recommend messaging the bowl you prefer on the social apps, talking up the mighty California Golden Bears, and (most importantly) intention to buy tickets if Cal makes it.
Additionally, if you are a season ticket holder, you should have the option to buy tickets for one or the other in advance. Early ticket buys could be an indicator of interest. If Cal outpaces UCLA, this sentiment analysis could be an additional factor that’s weighed in.
Now, I don’t think these will be the primary reasons a bowl will take either Cal or UCLA. But it can’t hurt.
One thing to consider. Cal will travel to Los Angeles in large numbers, stay in hotels and dine at restaurants. If one purpose of a bowl is to boost the local economy, that will be a strong lean toward Cal vs UCLA. A game in Shreveport would certainly draw way fewer Cal people. Hoping for Los Angeles.
Hoping LA the city, for sure, and not LA the state. But will attend either. I love Cal bowl games. I'm a season ticket holder and have not yet been contacted about purchasing bowl tix. Go Bears! I wouldn't want to play this Bear team if I'm not a top 20 team.