The stat around losing to teams that have 0 wins is pretty meaningless to me, especially if its 3 games or less. It's akin to saying that winning 2 games back to back is a 2 game winning "streak."
Teams typically regress to the mean, good or bad. So if those teams lost 2 or 3 games but eventually did well, then we lost to a decent team. F…
The stat around losing to teams that have 0 wins is pretty meaningless to me, especially if its 3 games or less. It's akin to saying that winning 2 games back to back is a 2 game winning "streak."
Teams typically regress to the mean, good or bad. So if those teams lost 2 or 3 games but eventually did well, then we lost to a decent team. For example, the 2022 Notre Dame team finished the season 9-4. The Colorado and Arizona losses look bad because those teams sucked. The UCLA loss wasn't a great team but it was also Chip Kelly's 1st year where he also pulled off an upset to USC.
What would be more meaningful would be losses to, say, teams that ended the year with a < 0.500 record. How will we look at FSU's loss if they finish the season with 8 wins? You can't deny that their defense alone can win them a bunch of games.
The bigger issue here is that it feels like Cal fans look for a reasons to expect a loss or reasons to say we suck. TypiCal. Dooooom. Here's a random stat to show why we should lose. That's a problem with the fan base even if the black humor does help us cope.
The fact is that anyone who did predictions at the beginning of the season likely chalked FSU up as a loss. That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win. But statistically, again, they were likely to revert to the mean which is better than what their record shows so far. No one should be surprised that their 4 and 5 star D-line gobbled our O-line up all night or that they shut down the run or that Nando's throwing wasn't at his best because of the plethora of sacks.
FSU is a team so stacked in talent that they can play bad and still win. We're not that team. We have to play well to win. If we play bad, we lose.
Why are we acting like this is a 4 game season? We went from bullish on the season to saying Wilcox should be fired. Jesus christ. Have some balls people. We have a ton of more games to play and many more wins on the schedule. Don't take one bad loss and throw in the towel.
I like every thing about this post except taking the Lord’s name in vain. Totally unnecessary. And if you’re going to blaspheme, at least capitalize Christ.
This is not a place or University where religiosity rules. Believe what you want, but don’t expect the rest of us to continue the historic and destructive subservience to those beliefs in any of our expressions. God damn it to hell anyway!
Basic civility includes awareness and empathy for a lot of beliefs and points of view of others, without trampling for the sake of personal freedom, although it does exist. Would you knowingly point the soles of your shoes toward a devout Muslim? The late Professor William Bowsma taught me a lot about mutual respect in society, not just religious circles, and he was a full professor at this University.
Isn’t it enough already that we have to sit through Jesus commercials during football broadcasts?? And now heavy handed Christianity infiltrates our perfectly agnostic football chats? JFC!!
I believe the issue is that Wilcox has a record of losing these types of games. He has 8 years of results and trends with this program. Those trends are poor special teams play, lackluster offense, and missed FGs. This isn’t Wilcox’s first or second or third season. It is now his 8th and at one point a coach is what his record is. This wasn’t some fluke, one off game. We all want Wilcox to turn the corner and he has been given 8 seasons to do so and every time he has a chance to show that he and Cal are ready to take the next step, he fails in frustrating fashion.
8 years in modern CFB is basically a lifetime. Most coaches who have yet to post a winning conference record would have been replaced by now. Wilcox won’t be fired this season and probably not even next so long as he wins 5-7 games. Maybe for some fans that is good enough for a coach who “gets Cal” and graduates his players. Other fans might be frustrated by the 5-7 wins and want a change.
Long story short, I think we just have limited upside due to the money in the program and NIL. I’d love to believe that it was like the old Tedford days where you could hire, recruit and build over a number of years. But it’s so easy to transfer such that middle of the road programs become feeder for the big programs. And the ones with the most money attract the most talent.
So I think we need to be realistic with the upside that the Cal program has right now. I’d love to be a Cinderella story but we also need to set expectations realistically.
To continue this thought around realistic expectations, our defense looks great on at the moment both on paper and in the field. HOWEVER, we’ve not yet played a good offense, including FSU and Auburn despite their brand recognition. Davis and SDSU were below average D1 offenses at best. Miami is an excellent offense so that will be our defense’s first real test…and I’m hopeful but worried and not ready to assume that we have a “great” defense.
Yes, exactly. You can't just say 3-0 and we're awesome. Stack up Davis and SDSU to Boston College and Memphis. The latter two teams are much better. Or Auburn vs Georgia Tech.
Cal’s NIL is solid - not Ohio State or Alabama levels, but it’s not nothing, especially in the ACC. It definitely should not be used to excuse away the continued failures of a head coach that is 17-games below .500 in conference match-ups and is pinning losses on the same reasons in year 8 that he was in years 1 thru 7.
I hear what you’re saying - sure, some sunshine pumpers out there were hoping for a 10-win season, but by and large no one is asking this program to be Michigan. Still, we’ve seen good coaches win here….that’s a fact.
Institutional apathy and a hostile faculty didn’t cause Cal’s offense to fail to have the correct snap count half a dozen times…that’s literally football 101.
FSU Dline has 4 and 5 stars compared to our OLine which has 2 and 3 stars. The general trend of teams having more NIL and getting better players will just be even more stark in upcoming years.
Yeah, we agree that FSU has more players that will be drafted.
Comparable programs with similar or even smaller NILs, teams like Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis, dealt with that same Seminole DL without having half a dozen false start penalties. The difference is those players are simply better prepared by their coaching staffs.
Wilcox and staff rarely have this team ready to play, and they’re constantly surprised by looks from the other team. Cal is just a poorly coached team.
This goes to my original comment about reverting to the mean. The incorrect mistake people make about statistics is taking too-few data points and extrapolating some linear pattern.
So people looking at FSU's 0-3 record and assuming they will barely get any wins this year and looking at Cal's record and assume we will have barely any losses this year. That is a huge mistake.
Rather, you should look at more data points like last season's record or even beyond that and looking at the head coach's record over their time with a program. Norvell in the last 3 years: 5-7, 10-3, 13-1. Wilcox's: 5-7, 4-8, 6-7.
What we saw is a reversion to the mean: FSU started playing up to their talent level, specifically on defense. Cal started playing down to their talent level, specifically on offense. What we saw from our offense against Auburn during the 1st half is the best performance we've ever seen from them -- that is, it's a statistical aberration. As far as what we've seen, that's not their mean-level performance but their peak. I'd love for them to raise their average performance to that, but there's no indication of that.
If FSU goes on to have a poor season and say only garner 4 or fewer wins, then we can say that this was a really crappy performance on the bears. But if they go on to have a 9 win season, then it will be further proof that they are a talented team and just needed to play up to their level.
Even if NIL were an issue, it wouldn’t explain years 1-6 and it wouldn’t explain the false starts and it wouldn’t explain why Furd can have accurate kickers and we can’t.
That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win
I don't think there was a single person who thought it was going to be an easy win for us. We all knew it would be a tough game, but winnable. I didn't expect Cal to win, but the reality was FSU was actually pretty bad and we could have won this game.
I don't think we are overreacting. We are still 3-1.
But we are just disappointed that we missed the opportunity to get a huge momentum win.
Well maybe some are overreacting. We still have a chance to have a great season. But in order to do so, we need to play better and not regress to the means of the typical Wilcox team.
Yes. We made too many stupid mistakes like those penalties in the red zones when we got there. Also, their QB is a real pro prospect. and we still defensed him pretty well.
Respectfully, Pete, and not intending to flame, but why are we saying Florida State is better? Because they have more players that will be drafted? Because they went undefeated last year with a different team? Because their at-best 2/3rds full stadium made some noise? When FSU/Ga Tech kicked things off a month ago, sure, FSU was maybe “better” because of pedigree and previous results. But after a month of football, they certainly haven’t looked very good, and their offense is underwhelming.
We outgained them 410-284, had fewer penalty yards, with the turnovers and time of possession being a wash. We lost because we completely self-destructed in the red zone, missed multiple makeable FGs, and continuously failed to execute. Incidentally, all three of these issues have been hallmarks of the Wilcox era…and we cant really say that’s on Dirks, or Knowlton, or Carol, or the faculty.
2. 2024 recruiting class was ranked #12. Their transfer portal ranking was #7. Cal's was #55 and #17 accordingly.
3. Just look at their Dline compared to our Oline which is where the biggest disparity showed up. Their stat leaders from the game are all 4 and 5 star players. Our starting Oline are all 2 and 3 star or unrated players.
Yes, stars and rankings aren't everything but they are indicators of talent. Teams loaded with talent can play poorly and still find a way to win. Teams with less talent have to play well to win and lose if they don't play well.
That's essentially what happened. Despite their offense being paltry, their defense stepped up, specifically their front 6/7. It was a defensive battle, not an offensive one. They made it very difficult for our offense and even though we put up the yards, they didn't allow touchdowns. Obviously, points not yards are what determines the winner.
So we’re just throwing out the first 3 games this year where Georgia Tech, BC and Memphis, completely average programs with similar or inferior NILs, handled that FSU team?
The difference is coaching. Those programs are well coached, we are not. That’s the biggest issue…Wilcox is 39-44, 21-38 in conference because he is simply not a D1 caliber HC. It’s really simple.
The stat around losing to teams that have 0 wins is pretty meaningless to me, especially if its 3 games or less. It's akin to saying that winning 2 games back to back is a 2 game winning "streak."
Teams typically regress to the mean, good or bad. So if those teams lost 2 or 3 games but eventually did well, then we lost to a decent team. For example, the 2022 Notre Dame team finished the season 9-4. The Colorado and Arizona losses look bad because those teams sucked. The UCLA loss wasn't a great team but it was also Chip Kelly's 1st year where he also pulled off an upset to USC.
What would be more meaningful would be losses to, say, teams that ended the year with a < 0.500 record. How will we look at FSU's loss if they finish the season with 8 wins? You can't deny that their defense alone can win them a bunch of games.
The bigger issue here is that it feels like Cal fans look for a reasons to expect a loss or reasons to say we suck. TypiCal. Dooooom. Here's a random stat to show why we should lose. That's a problem with the fan base even if the black humor does help us cope.
The fact is that anyone who did predictions at the beginning of the season likely chalked FSU up as a loss. That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win. But statistically, again, they were likely to revert to the mean which is better than what their record shows so far. No one should be surprised that their 4 and 5 star D-line gobbled our O-line up all night or that they shut down the run or that Nando's throwing wasn't at his best because of the plethora of sacks.
FSU is a team so stacked in talent that they can play bad and still win. We're not that team. We have to play well to win. If we play bad, we lose.
Why are we acting like this is a 4 game season? We went from bullish on the season to saying Wilcox should be fired. Jesus christ. Have some balls people. We have a ton of more games to play and many more wins on the schedule. Don't take one bad loss and throw in the towel.
I like every thing about this post except taking the Lord’s name in vain. Totally unnecessary. And if you’re going to blaspheme, at least capitalize Christ.
This is not a place or University where religiosity rules. Believe what you want, but don’t expect the rest of us to continue the historic and destructive subservience to those beliefs in any of our expressions. God damn it to hell anyway!
LMFAO!!
I’m just asking for a measure of civility, with no guarantee of a positive response, obviously.
Basic civility includes awareness and empathy for a lot of beliefs and points of view of others, without trampling for the sake of personal freedom, although it does exist. Would you knowingly point the soles of your shoes toward a devout Muslim? The late Professor William Bowsma taught me a lot about mutual respect in society, not just religious circles, and he was a full professor at this University.
Isn’t it enough already that we have to sit through Jesus commercials during football broadcasts?? And now heavy handed Christianity infiltrates our perfectly agnostic football chats? JFC!!
I believe the issue is that Wilcox has a record of losing these types of games. He has 8 years of results and trends with this program. Those trends are poor special teams play, lackluster offense, and missed FGs. This isn’t Wilcox’s first or second or third season. It is now his 8th and at one point a coach is what his record is. This wasn’t some fluke, one off game. We all want Wilcox to turn the corner and he has been given 8 seasons to do so and every time he has a chance to show that he and Cal are ready to take the next step, he fails in frustrating fashion.
8 years in modern CFB is basically a lifetime. Most coaches who have yet to post a winning conference record would have been replaced by now. Wilcox won’t be fired this season and probably not even next so long as he wins 5-7 games. Maybe for some fans that is good enough for a coach who “gets Cal” and graduates his players. Other fans might be frustrated by the 5-7 wins and want a change.
Long story short, I think we just have limited upside due to the money in the program and NIL. I’d love to believe that it was like the old Tedford days where you could hire, recruit and build over a number of years. But it’s so easy to transfer such that middle of the road programs become feeder for the big programs. And the ones with the most money attract the most talent.
So I think we need to be realistic with the upside that the Cal program has right now. I’d love to be a Cinderella story but we also need to set expectations realistically.
To continue this thought around realistic expectations, our defense looks great on at the moment both on paper and in the field. HOWEVER, we’ve not yet played a good offense, including FSU and Auburn despite their brand recognition. Davis and SDSU were below average D1 offenses at best. Miami is an excellent offense so that will be our defense’s first real test…and I’m hopeful but worried and not ready to assume that we have a “great” defense.
Yes, exactly. You can't just say 3-0 and we're awesome. Stack up Davis and SDSU to Boston College and Memphis. The latter two teams are much better. Or Auburn vs Georgia Tech.
Cal’s NIL is solid - not Ohio State or Alabama levels, but it’s not nothing, especially in the ACC. It definitely should not be used to excuse away the continued failures of a head coach that is 17-games below .500 in conference match-ups and is pinning losses on the same reasons in year 8 that he was in years 1 thru 7.
I hear what you’re saying - sure, some sunshine pumpers out there were hoping for a 10-win season, but by and large no one is asking this program to be Michigan. Still, we’ve seen good coaches win here….that’s a fact.
Institutional apathy and a hostile faculty didn’t cause Cal’s offense to fail to have the correct snap count half a dozen times…that’s literally football 101.
FSU Dline has 4 and 5 stars compared to our OLine which has 2 and 3 stars. The general trend of teams having more NIL and getting better players will just be even more stark in upcoming years.
Yeah, we agree that FSU has more players that will be drafted.
Comparable programs with similar or even smaller NILs, teams like Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis, dealt with that same Seminole DL without having half a dozen false start penalties. The difference is those players are simply better prepared by their coaching staffs.
Wilcox and staff rarely have this team ready to play, and they’re constantly surprised by looks from the other team. Cal is just a poorly coached team.
This goes to my original comment about reverting to the mean. The incorrect mistake people make about statistics is taking too-few data points and extrapolating some linear pattern.
So people looking at FSU's 0-3 record and assuming they will barely get any wins this year and looking at Cal's record and assume we will have barely any losses this year. That is a huge mistake.
Rather, you should look at more data points like last season's record or even beyond that and looking at the head coach's record over their time with a program. Norvell in the last 3 years: 5-7, 10-3, 13-1. Wilcox's: 5-7, 4-8, 6-7.
What we saw is a reversion to the mean: FSU started playing up to their talent level, specifically on defense. Cal started playing down to their talent level, specifically on offense. What we saw from our offense against Auburn during the 1st half is the best performance we've ever seen from them -- that is, it's a statistical aberration. As far as what we've seen, that's not their mean-level performance but their peak. I'd love for them to raise their average performance to that, but there's no indication of that.
If FSU goes on to have a poor season and say only garner 4 or fewer wins, then we can say that this was a really crappy performance on the bears. But if they go on to have a 9 win season, then it will be further proof that they are a talented team and just needed to play up to their level.
Even if NIL were an issue, it wouldn’t explain years 1-6 and it wouldn’t explain the false starts and it wouldn’t explain why Furd can have accurate kickers and we can’t.
That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win
I don't think there was a single person who thought it was going to be an easy win for us. We all knew it would be a tough game, but winnable. I didn't expect Cal to win, but the reality was FSU was actually pretty bad and we could have won this game.
Yes, we could’ve won. A better thrown pass or better coverage on a single play would’ve been the difference. Agreed.
No reason to act like the sky is falling though.
I don't think we are overreacting. We are still 3-1.
But we are just disappointed that we missed the opportunity to get a huge momentum win.
Well maybe some are overreacting. We still have a chance to have a great season. But in order to do so, we need to play better and not regress to the means of the typical Wilcox team.
Yes. We made too many stupid mistakes like those penalties in the red zones when we got there. Also, their QB is a real pro prospect. and we still defensed him pretty well.
Was a lot of it self inflicted? Sure it was. But when you play someone better, they will cause you to make what looked like unforced errors.
Respectfully, Pete, and not intending to flame, but why are we saying Florida State is better? Because they have more players that will be drafted? Because they went undefeated last year with a different team? Because their at-best 2/3rds full stadium made some noise? When FSU/Ga Tech kicked things off a month ago, sure, FSU was maybe “better” because of pedigree and previous results. But after a month of football, they certainly haven’t looked very good, and their offense is underwhelming.
We outgained them 410-284, had fewer penalty yards, with the turnovers and time of possession being a wash. We lost because we completely self-destructed in the red zone, missed multiple makeable FGs, and continuously failed to execute. Incidentally, all three of these issues have been hallmarks of the Wilcox era…and we cant really say that’s on Dirks, or Knowlton, or Carol, or the faculty.
1. FSU's record last year.
2. 2024 recruiting class was ranked #12. Their transfer portal ranking was #7. Cal's was #55 and #17 accordingly.
3. Just look at their Dline compared to our Oline which is where the biggest disparity showed up. Their stat leaders from the game are all 4 and 5 star players. Our starting Oline are all 2 and 3 star or unrated players.
Yes, stars and rankings aren't everything but they are indicators of talent. Teams loaded with talent can play poorly and still find a way to win. Teams with less talent have to play well to win and lose if they don't play well.
That's essentially what happened. Despite their offense being paltry, their defense stepped up, specifically their front 6/7. It was a defensive battle, not an offensive one. They made it very difficult for our offense and even though we put up the yards, they didn't allow touchdowns. Obviously, points not yards are what determines the winner.
So we’re just throwing out the first 3 games this year where Georgia Tech, BC and Memphis, completely average programs with similar or inferior NILs, handled that FSU team?
The difference is coaching. Those programs are well coached, we are not. That’s the biggest issue…Wilcox is 39-44, 21-38 in conference because he is simply not a D1 caliber HC. It’s really simple.
Not to mention their 12th Man factor.