I can understand having a subpar O-line. It can take time to build up talent there, and even with the improvement in portal recruiting that would likely be the last thing to come from that. Fine.
What I don't get is continuing to design an offensive scheme as if we have a good OL. At least 90% of our runs go up the middle, into the line. The QB is usually dropped straight back into the pocket on critical 3rd or 4th downs, rather than having him on the move. Why? If your personnel is weak in a certain area, then the game plan needs to adjust to minimize that weakness. We rarely have this kind of creativity under Wilcox.
I've learned to live with a porous OL. It sucks but sometimes other teams have more talent. Guys get hurt. But all those pre-snap penalties are unacceptable to the point of embarrassing. That's a coaching problem.
I don't know how to express it, but Mendoza is absolutely the right QB for this line. He has some AR in him, keeping plays alive outside of the pocket. I really worry about him getting hurt, though.
Ott is being wasted. His patience is his unique talent. Tough to show that when you're hit at the handoff.
Well said. Sadly true. Most of FBS has better offensive line play and scoring. Why the hell can’t Cal have a freaking basic ability to score? Why can’t Wilcox hire offensive line and OC coaches who are at least average? I want to support Bloesch, but my entire family stayed up from 1am to 4am while on vacation in Corsica to watch this Cal offense grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. I’m so tired of it. I’ll be riding my motorcycle down to Berkeley for the Miami game, as much to see the Bay and friends, and with only a fools hope that we can learn how to snap the damn ball without penalties and score 27 points or more against an FBS team that is trying.
Cal should have won that game. Again, the lack of any creativity on offense doomed this team and will continue to do so. The play calling was just down right awful. The lack of creativity doesn’t allow this offense to function like it should. Period.
As a former head HS coach and ILB coach in college, I'm appalled at the play calling on both O and D. The majority of Cal runs were inside zone plays and pass patterns lacked any slant ins or Y pops. On D why so little blitz calls. and when they were called it was on 3rd and short which ware beaten by runs. On 3rd and long covered with 7 and sent 4 which is when we should have blitzed and UIgi had too much time, usually 4+ seconds. I hope this stuff gets ironed out in the bye week.
yeah allowing DJ to convert that 3rd and 18 was the turning point in this game. Cal has allowed that to happen too many times under Sirmon. We hold them there we likely win the game.
Defense is much improved, but the play calling sucked on several crucial drives.
Man we were screaming this at the tv all game. The 3rd down defensive play-calling was mind-bogglingly bland. Isn’t the rap on DJU that he melts under pressure, but has the ability to make almost any throw if you give him time? It felt like we were just sitting back and asking him to beat us - playing not to lose and then getting beat anyway.
Offensively, and I say this as someone with extremely limited knowledge of scheme, but it feels like we’re wasting a generational talent in Ott. It seems like he could be a deebo Samuel-type offensive weapon, but we’re content to just try to pound him into an under-performing offensive line. Wtf am I missing here? I think I’ve seen him run like one wheel route in his time at cal and it went for a td.
Don't fool yourself: Bloesch is who he is and I believe him when he says wearing two hats won't make a difference. Ergo, he either 1) overestimated his abilities to handle OC and OL duties, 2) underestimated the degree of difficulty in handling both duties, or 3) he's not a very good OC or OL coach.
Another distinct possibility is that Wilcox has no way of gauging the requirements of both OC and OL coaching or can't properly gauge the abilities of the offensive coaching staff.
Also a problem: institutional support at Cal isn't what it is at blueblood programs and until it is our expectations need to be tempered. Cal football also needs alumni support of a different, higher level than what exists now. Of course, if we had that 5 years ago I posit the Pac-12 might still be around today.
Half century of cheering now, but I would agree: Cal cannot garner the level of institutional/financial support needed to acquire a sustainable ‘program’ level coach along with the staff/players that entails. We can be a regular 5-7 win team at best vs ACC, maybe a 9-10 win season once or twice a decade with the newest coach or recruits that surprise vs expectations. Mid-level performance with occasional surprises either direction. ‘Pragmatic enthusiasm’ - go Bears!
The stat around losing to teams that have 0 wins is pretty meaningless to me, especially if its 3 games or less. It's akin to saying that winning 2 games back to back is a 2 game winning "streak."
Teams typically regress to the mean, good or bad. So if those teams lost 2 or 3 games but eventually did well, then we lost to a decent team. For example, the 2022 Notre Dame team finished the season 9-4. The Colorado and Arizona losses look bad because those teams sucked. The UCLA loss wasn't a great team but it was also Chip Kelly's 1st year where he also pulled off an upset to USC.
What would be more meaningful would be losses to, say, teams that ended the year with a < 0.500 record. How will we look at FSU's loss if they finish the season with 8 wins? You can't deny that their defense alone can win them a bunch of games.
The bigger issue here is that it feels like Cal fans look for a reasons to expect a loss or reasons to say we suck. TypiCal. Dooooom. Here's a random stat to show why we should lose. That's a problem with the fan base even if the black humor does help us cope.
The fact is that anyone who did predictions at the beginning of the season likely chalked FSU up as a loss. That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win. But statistically, again, they were likely to revert to the mean which is better than what their record shows so far. No one should be surprised that their 4 and 5 star D-line gobbled our O-line up all night or that they shut down the run or that Nando's throwing wasn't at his best because of the plethora of sacks.
FSU is a team so stacked in talent that they can play bad and still win. We're not that team. We have to play well to win. If we play bad, we lose.
Why are we acting like this is a 4 game season? We went from bullish on the season to saying Wilcox should be fired. Jesus christ. Have some balls people. We have a ton of more games to play and many more wins on the schedule. Don't take one bad loss and throw in the towel.
I like every thing about this post except taking the Lord’s name in vain. Totally unnecessary. And if you’re going to blaspheme, at least capitalize Christ.
This is not a place or University where religiosity rules. Believe what you want, but don’t expect the rest of us to continue the historic and destructive subservience to those beliefs in any of our expressions. God damn it to hell anyway!
Basic civility includes awareness and empathy for a lot of beliefs and points of view of others, without trampling for the sake of personal freedom, although it does exist. Would you knowingly point the soles of your shoes toward a devout Muslim? The late Professor William Bowsma taught me a lot about mutual respect in society, not just religious circles, and he was a full professor at this University.
Isn’t it enough already that we have to sit through Jesus commercials during football broadcasts?? And now heavy handed Christianity infiltrates our perfectly agnostic football chats? JFC!!
I believe the issue is that Wilcox has a record of losing these types of games. He has 8 years of results and trends with this program. Those trends are poor special teams play, lackluster offense, and missed FGs. This isn’t Wilcox’s first or second or third season. It is now his 8th and at one point a coach is what his record is. This wasn’t some fluke, one off game. We all want Wilcox to turn the corner and he has been given 8 seasons to do so and every time he has a chance to show that he and Cal are ready to take the next step, he fails in frustrating fashion.
8 years in modern CFB is basically a lifetime. Most coaches who have yet to post a winning conference record would have been replaced by now. Wilcox won’t be fired this season and probably not even next so long as he wins 5-7 games. Maybe for some fans that is good enough for a coach who “gets Cal” and graduates his players. Other fans might be frustrated by the 5-7 wins and want a change.
Long story short, I think we just have limited upside due to the money in the program and NIL. I’d love to believe that it was like the old Tedford days where you could hire, recruit and build over a number of years. But it’s so easy to transfer such that middle of the road programs become feeder for the big programs. And the ones with the most money attract the most talent.
So I think we need to be realistic with the upside that the Cal program has right now. I’d love to be a Cinderella story but we also need to set expectations realistically.
To continue this thought around realistic expectations, our defense looks great on at the moment both on paper and in the field. HOWEVER, we’ve not yet played a good offense, including FSU and Auburn despite their brand recognition. Davis and SDSU were below average D1 offenses at best. Miami is an excellent offense so that will be our defense’s first real test…and I’m hopeful but worried and not ready to assume that we have a “great” defense.
Yes, exactly. You can't just say 3-0 and we're awesome. Stack up Davis and SDSU to Boston College and Memphis. The latter two teams are much better. Or Auburn vs Georgia Tech.
Cal’s NIL is solid - not Ohio State or Alabama levels, but it’s not nothing, especially in the ACC. It definitely should not be used to excuse away the continued failures of a head coach that is 17-games below .500 in conference match-ups and is pinning losses on the same reasons in year 8 that he was in years 1 thru 7.
I hear what you’re saying - sure, some sunshine pumpers out there were hoping for a 10-win season, but by and large no one is asking this program to be Michigan. Still, we’ve seen good coaches win here….that’s a fact.
Institutional apathy and a hostile faculty didn’t cause Cal’s offense to fail to have the correct snap count half a dozen times…that’s literally football 101.
FSU Dline has 4 and 5 stars compared to our OLine which has 2 and 3 stars. The general trend of teams having more NIL and getting better players will just be even more stark in upcoming years.
Yeah, we agree that FSU has more players that will be drafted.
Comparable programs with similar or even smaller NILs, teams like Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis, dealt with that same Seminole DL without having half a dozen false start penalties. The difference is those players are simply better prepared by their coaching staffs.
Wilcox and staff rarely have this team ready to play, and they’re constantly surprised by looks from the other team. Cal is just a poorly coached team.
This goes to my original comment about reverting to the mean. The incorrect mistake people make about statistics is taking too-few data points and extrapolating some linear pattern.
So people looking at FSU's 0-3 record and assuming they will barely get any wins this year and looking at Cal's record and assume we will have barely any losses this year. That is a huge mistake.
Rather, you should look at more data points like last season's record or even beyond that and looking at the head coach's record over their time with a program. Norvell in the last 3 years: 5-7, 10-3, 13-1. Wilcox's: 5-7, 4-8, 6-7.
What we saw is a reversion to the mean: FSU started playing up to their talent level, specifically on defense. Cal started playing down to their talent level, specifically on offense. What we saw from our offense against Auburn during the 1st half is the best performance we've ever seen from them -- that is, it's a statistical aberration. As far as what we've seen, that's not their mean-level performance but their peak. I'd love for them to raise their average performance to that, but there's no indication of that.
If FSU goes on to have a poor season and say only garner 4 or fewer wins, then we can say that this was a really crappy performance on the bears. But if they go on to have a 9 win season, then it will be further proof that they are a talented team and just needed to play up to their level.
Even if NIL were an issue, it wouldn’t explain years 1-6 and it wouldn’t explain the false starts and it wouldn’t explain why Furd can have accurate kickers and we can’t.
That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win
I don't think there was a single person who thought it was going to be an easy win for us. We all knew it would be a tough game, but winnable. I didn't expect Cal to win, but the reality was FSU was actually pretty bad and we could have won this game.
I don't think we are overreacting. We are still 3-1.
But we are just disappointed that we missed the opportunity to get a huge momentum win.
Well maybe some are overreacting. We still have a chance to have a great season. But in order to do so, we need to play better and not regress to the means of the typical Wilcox team.
Yes. We made too many stupid mistakes like those penalties in the red zones when we got there. Also, their QB is a real pro prospect. and we still defensed him pretty well.
Respectfully, Pete, and not intending to flame, but why are we saying Florida State is better? Because they have more players that will be drafted? Because they went undefeated last year with a different team? Because their at-best 2/3rds full stadium made some noise? When FSU/Ga Tech kicked things off a month ago, sure, FSU was maybe “better” because of pedigree and previous results. But after a month of football, they certainly haven’t looked very good, and their offense is underwhelming.
We outgained them 410-284, had fewer penalty yards, with the turnovers and time of possession being a wash. We lost because we completely self-destructed in the red zone, missed multiple makeable FGs, and continuously failed to execute. Incidentally, all three of these issues have been hallmarks of the Wilcox era…and we cant really say that’s on Dirks, or Knowlton, or Carol, or the faculty.
2. 2024 recruiting class was ranked #12. Their transfer portal ranking was #7. Cal's was #55 and #17 accordingly.
3. Just look at their Dline compared to our Oline which is where the biggest disparity showed up. Their stat leaders from the game are all 4 and 5 star players. Our starting Oline are all 2 and 3 star or unrated players.
Yes, stars and rankings aren't everything but they are indicators of talent. Teams loaded with talent can play poorly and still find a way to win. Teams with less talent have to play well to win and lose if they don't play well.
That's essentially what happened. Despite their offense being paltry, their defense stepped up, specifically their front 6/7. It was a defensive battle, not an offensive one. They made it very difficult for our offense and even though we put up the yards, they didn't allow touchdowns. Obviously, points not yards are what determines the winner.
So we’re just throwing out the first 3 games this year where Georgia Tech, BC and Memphis, completely average programs with similar or inferior NILs, handled that FSU team?
The difference is coaching. Those programs are well coached, we are not. That’s the biggest issue…Wilcox is 39-44, 21-38 in conference because he is simply not a D1 caliber HC. It’s really simple.
We all know Wilcox is a defensive minded coach. He is not comfortable dialing up offensive plays. He has finally put together an offense that can move the football but why can't he just try to emphasize hiring a proven special teams coach (get a proven field goal kicker, coach kids up on kick off, kick return, punt and punt return. Its quite obvious we need this area of football to win Wilcox style game. If we make those field goals its changes the entire outcome of the game. The opponents play calling changes, everything changes. Every year this is the case. I tired of the "ifs". It has been eight years! Chancellor Lyons needs to get on the phone! Given the ability to pull from the portal, NIL incentives, school excellence and location, the kids will come.
Coe is a proven kicker we pulled from the portal. His protection let one get tipped but he just blew the other. Absolutely yes, we need to make FGs if we're going to drag teams into rock fights.
To pull the best players from the portal takes MONEY. We can't afford to pay a QB $2 million like USC did to Williams last year. Let's face it, Stanford and Cal just don't have the money and also the incoming transfers have to have the academic qualifications for Cal and furd.
There is middle ground there tho, Coach. Sure, Cal’s not swimming in the same waters as Ohio State and USC…but their portal class was nonetheless solid. Hopefully the WRs get back after the BYE, Vatikani’s OK and the OL spends the time working on technique.
I just feel bad for the players. They’ve worked so hard, clearly. They battled. And just couldn’t put it together. They both won the game and gave up the game. Such is college football. Prolly a very quiet plane ride home. Maybe they’ll have the grit they need to beat Miami. We Bears can believe!
Why?? Everything has already said. O-line not strong enough. They were overwhelmed by FSU D. Cal defense was nasty, 95% of the game, but still gave up 14. And special teams 🙄. Sweet geebus. So many missed opportunities. Hard not to shake our heard with the hackneyed: typi-cal. But that’s what it’s been to be a fan for the last 15 years. We’ve all yearned for the Tedford heydays. (I was at the triple overtime game at SC, though I only remember parts 🤣🍻.) I still believe we can win out after Miami. We’ll see what kind of team this is in 2 weeks. Till then, we root for the Lions and the Jets.
Outgained them 410-284 and beat them on yards passing (303-177), YPA (8.2-6.6), YPC (2.9-2.6), and penalty yards (55-72). But we lost total penalties (10-7), with extremely poorly timed ones, and 3rd down % (33.3-41.2) with key ones on TD drives.
Football is a game of key plays, unfortunately, and we lost a few ones here. Onward.
My mind cannot fathom losing 7 straight games to winless teams, how is that statistically possible? When does the law of averages kick in haha? This happened all under the Wilcox era; I just don’t understand how can this be. Maybe Wilcox and co. need to consult a sports psychologist haha.
Well, thought some of those were Sonny but maybe not.
But under the current regime, it’s possible because the man leading the program is a career coordinator and a below average D1 head coach that consistently struggles to have his team ready to play.
The Colorado loss at Folsom in ’22 off a Bye should have cost him his job…our brain dead AD got worked by JW’s agent though and inexcusably handed out a $20M+ guaranteed extension because former players in Eugene wanted him hired…something that was never going to happen.
We will never take that next step under Wilcox. The variety of opportunities and situations in the last 8 odd years prove that out. So don’t even allow yourself to go there until he is gone.
Instead, cheer the team on every game and enjoy 6-8 win seasons with a decent bowl game as best you can until that fateful day when Wilcox voluntarily goes and Ron Rivera parachutes in to accept the job at the end of the Stanford game.
Yeah but you're projecting into the future. By the time we could theoretically have a coaching change he'd be 64-65. That's at most a 3-4 year window before he likely hangs it up. That's not a stable foundation to recruit from and I'm pretty sure Rivera knows it.
I can understand having a subpar O-line. It can take time to build up talent there, and even with the improvement in portal recruiting that would likely be the last thing to come from that. Fine.
What I don't get is continuing to design an offensive scheme as if we have a good OL. At least 90% of our runs go up the middle, into the line. The QB is usually dropped straight back into the pocket on critical 3rd or 4th downs, rather than having him on the move. Why? If your personnel is weak in a certain area, then the game plan needs to adjust to minimize that weakness. We rarely have this kind of creativity under Wilcox.
I've learned to live with a porous OL. It sucks but sometimes other teams have more talent. Guys get hurt. But all those pre-snap penalties are unacceptable to the point of embarrassing. That's a coaching problem.
I don't know how to express it, but Mendoza is absolutely the right QB for this line. He has some AR in him, keeping plays alive outside of the pocket. I really worry about him getting hurt, though.
Ott is being wasted. His patience is his unique talent. Tough to show that when you're hit at the handoff.
Well said. Sadly true. Most of FBS has better offensive line play and scoring. Why the hell can’t Cal have a freaking basic ability to score? Why can’t Wilcox hire offensive line and OC coaches who are at least average? I want to support Bloesch, but my entire family stayed up from 1am to 4am while on vacation in Corsica to watch this Cal offense grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. I’m so tired of it. I’ll be riding my motorcycle down to Berkeley for the Miami game, as much to see the Bay and friends, and with only a fools hope that we can learn how to snap the damn ball without penalties and score 27 points or more against an FBS team that is trying.
Cal should have won that game. Again, the lack of any creativity on offense doomed this team and will continue to do so. The play calling was just down right awful. The lack of creativity doesn’t allow this offense to function like it should. Period.
As a former head HS coach and ILB coach in college, I'm appalled at the play calling on both O and D. The majority of Cal runs were inside zone plays and pass patterns lacked any slant ins or Y pops. On D why so little blitz calls. and when they were called it was on 3rd and short which ware beaten by runs. On 3rd and long covered with 7 and sent 4 which is when we should have blitzed and UIgi had too much time, usually 4+ seconds. I hope this stuff gets ironed out in the bye week.
yeah allowing DJ to convert that 3rd and 18 was the turning point in this game. Cal has allowed that to happen too many times under Sirmon. We hold them there we likely win the game.
Defense is much improved, but the play calling sucked on several crucial drives.
Man we were screaming this at the tv all game. The 3rd down defensive play-calling was mind-bogglingly bland. Isn’t the rap on DJU that he melts under pressure, but has the ability to make almost any throw if you give him time? It felt like we were just sitting back and asking him to beat us - playing not to lose and then getting beat anyway.
Offensively, and I say this as someone with extremely limited knowledge of scheme, but it feels like we’re wasting a generational talent in Ott. It seems like he could be a deebo Samuel-type offensive weapon, but we’re content to just try to pound him into an under-performing offensive line. Wtf am I missing here? I think I’ve seen him run like one wheel route in his time at cal and it went for a td.
I can't believe we have to wait 2 weeks for vindication. Wait shit it's #7 miami next 💀
Don't fool yourself: Bloesch is who he is and I believe him when he says wearing two hats won't make a difference. Ergo, he either 1) overestimated his abilities to handle OC and OL duties, 2) underestimated the degree of difficulty in handling both duties, or 3) he's not a very good OC or OL coach.
Another distinct possibility is that Wilcox has no way of gauging the requirements of both OC and OL coaching or can't properly gauge the abilities of the offensive coaching staff.
Also a problem: institutional support at Cal isn't what it is at blueblood programs and until it is our expectations need to be tempered. Cal football also needs alumni support of a different, higher level than what exists now. Of course, if we had that 5 years ago I posit the Pac-12 might still be around today.
Half century of cheering now, but I would agree: Cal cannot garner the level of institutional/financial support needed to acquire a sustainable ‘program’ level coach along with the staff/players that entails. We can be a regular 5-7 win team at best vs ACC, maybe a 9-10 win season once or twice a decade with the newest coach or recruits that surprise vs expectations. Mid-level performance with occasional surprises either direction. ‘Pragmatic enthusiasm’ - go Bears!
The stat around losing to teams that have 0 wins is pretty meaningless to me, especially if its 3 games or less. It's akin to saying that winning 2 games back to back is a 2 game winning "streak."
Teams typically regress to the mean, good or bad. So if those teams lost 2 or 3 games but eventually did well, then we lost to a decent team. For example, the 2022 Notre Dame team finished the season 9-4. The Colorado and Arizona losses look bad because those teams sucked. The UCLA loss wasn't a great team but it was also Chip Kelly's 1st year where he also pulled off an upset to USC.
What would be more meaningful would be losses to, say, teams that ended the year with a < 0.500 record. How will we look at FSU's loss if they finish the season with 8 wins? You can't deny that their defense alone can win them a bunch of games.
The bigger issue here is that it feels like Cal fans look for a reasons to expect a loss or reasons to say we suck. TypiCal. Dooooom. Here's a random stat to show why we should lose. That's a problem with the fan base even if the black humor does help us cope.
The fact is that anyone who did predictions at the beginning of the season likely chalked FSU up as a loss. That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win. But statistically, again, they were likely to revert to the mean which is better than what their record shows so far. No one should be surprised that their 4 and 5 star D-line gobbled our O-line up all night or that they shut down the run or that Nando's throwing wasn't at his best because of the plethora of sacks.
FSU is a team so stacked in talent that they can play bad and still win. We're not that team. We have to play well to win. If we play bad, we lose.
Why are we acting like this is a 4 game season? We went from bullish on the season to saying Wilcox should be fired. Jesus christ. Have some balls people. We have a ton of more games to play and many more wins on the schedule. Don't take one bad loss and throw in the towel.
I like every thing about this post except taking the Lord’s name in vain. Totally unnecessary. And if you’re going to blaspheme, at least capitalize Christ.
This is not a place or University where religiosity rules. Believe what you want, but don’t expect the rest of us to continue the historic and destructive subservience to those beliefs in any of our expressions. God damn it to hell anyway!
LMFAO!!
I’m just asking for a measure of civility, with no guarantee of a positive response, obviously.
Basic civility includes awareness and empathy for a lot of beliefs and points of view of others, without trampling for the sake of personal freedom, although it does exist. Would you knowingly point the soles of your shoes toward a devout Muslim? The late Professor William Bowsma taught me a lot about mutual respect in society, not just religious circles, and he was a full professor at this University.
Isn’t it enough already that we have to sit through Jesus commercials during football broadcasts?? And now heavy handed Christianity infiltrates our perfectly agnostic football chats? JFC!!
I believe the issue is that Wilcox has a record of losing these types of games. He has 8 years of results and trends with this program. Those trends are poor special teams play, lackluster offense, and missed FGs. This isn’t Wilcox’s first or second or third season. It is now his 8th and at one point a coach is what his record is. This wasn’t some fluke, one off game. We all want Wilcox to turn the corner and he has been given 8 seasons to do so and every time he has a chance to show that he and Cal are ready to take the next step, he fails in frustrating fashion.
8 years in modern CFB is basically a lifetime. Most coaches who have yet to post a winning conference record would have been replaced by now. Wilcox won’t be fired this season and probably not even next so long as he wins 5-7 games. Maybe for some fans that is good enough for a coach who “gets Cal” and graduates his players. Other fans might be frustrated by the 5-7 wins and want a change.
Long story short, I think we just have limited upside due to the money in the program and NIL. I’d love to believe that it was like the old Tedford days where you could hire, recruit and build over a number of years. But it’s so easy to transfer such that middle of the road programs become feeder for the big programs. And the ones with the most money attract the most talent.
So I think we need to be realistic with the upside that the Cal program has right now. I’d love to be a Cinderella story but we also need to set expectations realistically.
To continue this thought around realistic expectations, our defense looks great on at the moment both on paper and in the field. HOWEVER, we’ve not yet played a good offense, including FSU and Auburn despite their brand recognition. Davis and SDSU were below average D1 offenses at best. Miami is an excellent offense so that will be our defense’s first real test…and I’m hopeful but worried and not ready to assume that we have a “great” defense.
Yes, exactly. You can't just say 3-0 and we're awesome. Stack up Davis and SDSU to Boston College and Memphis. The latter two teams are much better. Or Auburn vs Georgia Tech.
Cal’s NIL is solid - not Ohio State or Alabama levels, but it’s not nothing, especially in the ACC. It definitely should not be used to excuse away the continued failures of a head coach that is 17-games below .500 in conference match-ups and is pinning losses on the same reasons in year 8 that he was in years 1 thru 7.
I hear what you’re saying - sure, some sunshine pumpers out there were hoping for a 10-win season, but by and large no one is asking this program to be Michigan. Still, we’ve seen good coaches win here….that’s a fact.
Institutional apathy and a hostile faculty didn’t cause Cal’s offense to fail to have the correct snap count half a dozen times…that’s literally football 101.
FSU Dline has 4 and 5 stars compared to our OLine which has 2 and 3 stars. The general trend of teams having more NIL and getting better players will just be even more stark in upcoming years.
Yeah, we agree that FSU has more players that will be drafted.
Comparable programs with similar or even smaller NILs, teams like Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis, dealt with that same Seminole DL without having half a dozen false start penalties. The difference is those players are simply better prepared by their coaching staffs.
Wilcox and staff rarely have this team ready to play, and they’re constantly surprised by looks from the other team. Cal is just a poorly coached team.
This goes to my original comment about reverting to the mean. The incorrect mistake people make about statistics is taking too-few data points and extrapolating some linear pattern.
So people looking at FSU's 0-3 record and assuming they will barely get any wins this year and looking at Cal's record and assume we will have barely any losses this year. That is a huge mistake.
Rather, you should look at more data points like last season's record or even beyond that and looking at the head coach's record over their time with a program. Norvell in the last 3 years: 5-7, 10-3, 13-1. Wilcox's: 5-7, 4-8, 6-7.
What we saw is a reversion to the mean: FSU started playing up to their talent level, specifically on defense. Cal started playing down to their talent level, specifically on offense. What we saw from our offense against Auburn during the 1st half is the best performance we've ever seen from them -- that is, it's a statistical aberration. As far as what we've seen, that's not their mean-level performance but their peak. I'd love for them to raise their average performance to that, but there's no indication of that.
If FSU goes on to have a poor season and say only garner 4 or fewer wins, then we can say that this was a really crappy performance on the bears. But if they go on to have a 9 win season, then it will be further proof that they are a talented team and just needed to play up to their level.
Even if NIL were an issue, it wouldn’t explain years 1-6 and it wouldn’t explain the false starts and it wouldn’t explain why Furd can have accurate kickers and we can’t.
That they are 0-3 made us think that it was an easy win
I don't think there was a single person who thought it was going to be an easy win for us. We all knew it would be a tough game, but winnable. I didn't expect Cal to win, but the reality was FSU was actually pretty bad and we could have won this game.
Yes, we could’ve won. A better thrown pass or better coverage on a single play would’ve been the difference. Agreed.
No reason to act like the sky is falling though.
I don't think we are overreacting. We are still 3-1.
But we are just disappointed that we missed the opportunity to get a huge momentum win.
Well maybe some are overreacting. We still have a chance to have a great season. But in order to do so, we need to play better and not regress to the means of the typical Wilcox team.
Yes. We made too many stupid mistakes like those penalties in the red zones when we got there. Also, their QB is a real pro prospect. and we still defensed him pretty well.
Was a lot of it self inflicted? Sure it was. But when you play someone better, they will cause you to make what looked like unforced errors.
Respectfully, Pete, and not intending to flame, but why are we saying Florida State is better? Because they have more players that will be drafted? Because they went undefeated last year with a different team? Because their at-best 2/3rds full stadium made some noise? When FSU/Ga Tech kicked things off a month ago, sure, FSU was maybe “better” because of pedigree and previous results. But after a month of football, they certainly haven’t looked very good, and their offense is underwhelming.
We outgained them 410-284, had fewer penalty yards, with the turnovers and time of possession being a wash. We lost because we completely self-destructed in the red zone, missed multiple makeable FGs, and continuously failed to execute. Incidentally, all three of these issues have been hallmarks of the Wilcox era…and we cant really say that’s on Dirks, or Knowlton, or Carol, or the faculty.
1. FSU's record last year.
2. 2024 recruiting class was ranked #12. Their transfer portal ranking was #7. Cal's was #55 and #17 accordingly.
3. Just look at their Dline compared to our Oline which is where the biggest disparity showed up. Their stat leaders from the game are all 4 and 5 star players. Our starting Oline are all 2 and 3 star or unrated players.
Yes, stars and rankings aren't everything but they are indicators of talent. Teams loaded with talent can play poorly and still find a way to win. Teams with less talent have to play well to win and lose if they don't play well.
That's essentially what happened. Despite their offense being paltry, their defense stepped up, specifically their front 6/7. It was a defensive battle, not an offensive one. They made it very difficult for our offense and even though we put up the yards, they didn't allow touchdowns. Obviously, points not yards are what determines the winner.
So we’re just throwing out the first 3 games this year where Georgia Tech, BC and Memphis, completely average programs with similar or inferior NILs, handled that FSU team?
The difference is coaching. Those programs are well coached, we are not. That’s the biggest issue…Wilcox is 39-44, 21-38 in conference because he is simply not a D1 caliber HC. It’s really simple.
Not to mention their 12th Man factor.
We all know Wilcox is a defensive minded coach. He is not comfortable dialing up offensive plays. He has finally put together an offense that can move the football but why can't he just try to emphasize hiring a proven special teams coach (get a proven field goal kicker, coach kids up on kick off, kick return, punt and punt return. Its quite obvious we need this area of football to win Wilcox style game. If we make those field goals its changes the entire outcome of the game. The opponents play calling changes, everything changes. Every year this is the case. I tired of the "ifs". It has been eight years! Chancellor Lyons needs to get on the phone! Given the ability to pull from the portal, NIL incentives, school excellence and location, the kids will come.
Coe is a proven kicker we pulled from the portal. His protection let one get tipped but he just blew the other. Absolutely yes, we need to make FGs if we're going to drag teams into rock fights.
Our punter is great, FWIW.
To pull the best players from the portal takes MONEY. We can't afford to pay a QB $2 million like USC did to Williams last year. Let's face it, Stanford and Cal just don't have the money and also the incoming transfers have to have the academic qualifications for Cal and furd.
There is middle ground there tho, Coach. Sure, Cal’s not swimming in the same waters as Ohio State and USC…but their portal class was nonetheless solid. Hopefully the WRs get back after the BYE, Vatikani’s OK and the OL spends the time working on technique.
I just feel bad for the players. They’ve worked so hard, clearly. They battled. And just couldn’t put it together. They both won the game and gave up the game. Such is college football. Prolly a very quiet plane ride home. Maybe they’ll have the grit they need to beat Miami. We Bears can believe!
Why?? Everything has already said. O-line not strong enough. They were overwhelmed by FSU D. Cal defense was nasty, 95% of the game, but still gave up 14. And special teams 🙄. Sweet geebus. So many missed opportunities. Hard not to shake our heard with the hackneyed: typi-cal. But that’s what it’s been to be a fan for the last 15 years. We’ve all yearned for the Tedford heydays. (I was at the triple overtime game at SC, though I only remember parts 🤣🍻.) I still believe we can win out after Miami. We’ll see what kind of team this is in 2 weeks. Till then, we root for the Lions and the Jets.
Go Bears!
Giving up 14 points on the road with 284 total yards allowed should be good enough to win.
Absolutely!
Outgained them 410-284 and beat them on yards passing (303-177), YPA (8.2-6.6), YPC (2.9-2.6), and penalty yards (55-72). But we lost total penalties (10-7), with extremely poorly timed ones, and 3rd down % (33.3-41.2) with key ones on TD drives.
Football is a game of key plays, unfortunately, and we lost a few ones here. Onward.
My mind cannot fathom losing 7 straight games to winless teams, how is that statistically possible? When does the law of averages kick in haha? This happened all under the Wilcox era; I just don’t understand how can this be. Maybe Wilcox and co. need to consult a sports psychologist haha.
Well, thought some of those were Sonny but maybe not.
But under the current regime, it’s possible because the man leading the program is a career coordinator and a below average D1 head coach that consistently struggles to have his team ready to play.
The Colorado loss at Folsom in ’22 off a Bye should have cost him his job…our brain dead AD got worked by JW’s agent though and inexcusably handed out a $20M+ guaranteed extension because former players in Eugene wanted him hired…something that was never going to happen.
3rd down D. Yikes. Worse than the false starts.
We will never take that next step under Wilcox. The variety of opportunities and situations in the last 8 odd years prove that out. So don’t even allow yourself to go there until he is gone.
Instead, cheer the team on every game and enjoy 6-8 win seasons with a decent bowl game as best you can until that fateful day when Wilcox voluntarily goes and Ron Rivera parachutes in to accept the job at the end of the Stanford game.
Ron Rivera is 62 years old. HIs days of coaching are past.
Nick Saban 71 (last year), Kirk Ferentz 69, Kyle Whittingham 64, Curt Cignetti 63, Brian Kelly 62, Mack Brown 73 to name a few.
Even the NFL has had people too old to Coach:
Bill Belichick 71, Marc Levy 72, Pete Carroll 72, Andy Reid 66, John Harbaugh 61, Mike McCarthy 60
Yeah but you're projecting into the future. By the time we could theoretically have a coaching change he'd be 64-65. That's at most a 3-4 year window before he likely hangs it up. That's not a stable foundation to recruit from and I'm pretty sure Rivera knows it.
I can dream, plus 62 is the new 52!
On target re: Blosech overwhelmed.