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Ukraine/Russia

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US & Germany do joint announcement saying they are officially sending Bradley and Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles.

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DBD hivemind: what are your recommendations for a weekend in Palm Springs?

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Pretend to be a Canadian snowbird tourist for funsies.

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If you are willing to drive an hour to and and hour back at night, some areas * in Joshua Tree National Park are great for stargazing, especially if you pick a weekend during a meteor shower.

*Unfortunately, due to the nature of increasing development, both in Palm Springs and in other surrounding areas, JTNP is no longer a great dark sky site, though it is still far better than anything in suburban or even some rural areas.

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Hmmm we land at 10:45 at night, so we could consider driving out then...

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I took this photo (multiple images combined) during a meteor shower during covid. There's light pollution but it's still one of the darkest place in sourthern california.

https://i.imgur.com/imNlQzA.jpg

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not sure if you took w/ phone camera or not, but the most recent phones do a pretty amazing job in low light w/ stars if it is dark enough.

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The Android night mode is pretty amazing.

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I took it with DLSR.

I clicked on the link and when you see it on the phone, it's really blurry.

If you turn on the desktops mode you can see the original quality.

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Wow amazing. The darkest I've ever seen the stars was I think Glacier Pt in Yosemite in the summer.

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But meteor shower is not everyday. If there's no meteor shower you can still enjoy the Milky Way.

https://i.imgur.com/hkiGNiN.jpg

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I just enjoyed one myself.

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... a meteor shower?

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Wow, that is fantastic!

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thank you

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Yeah that is so cool!

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that's an awesome picture.

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thanks!

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023Liked by SGBear

Take the tram up to Mount San Jacinto, hike around San Jacinto a bit. Come back down and enjoy some cocktails and food by the pool. Go out to the Agua Caliente Tribal Cultural Museum, also hike out to Tahquitz and Indian Canyon.

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Thanks!

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i would have not remembered all the names of places but would vaguely have said the same.

be prepared for all the climates if you go to the top.

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ALL THE CLIMATES???

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All of them.

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But she didn't need to yell it!

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@Oski Disciple: Rob says that something must have slipped through the cracks. Would you please contact him about writing?

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I would but unlike last year I am teaching again in addition to working on novel number three. If I'd been signed on last year I would have probably maintained my commitment but that ship has sailed. Wish I could help -- hope someone is found.

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Got it!

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Chicken Soup for the DBD

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An Alaskan dog-walker has a field-trip bus

https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1609988922762731529

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Skagway is a cute little town. I used to run a relay that started there and finished in Whitehorse, Yukon Territory.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

The ex-Mrs Chitwood and I had a disastrous day and completely predictable monster fight in Skagway during our Inner Passage/Alaskan cruise in summer 2014...

We had a kick a$$ day planned - charter fishing on this local Skagway guy's small boat, just the two of us, and he was also going to take us to spots where we could expect to see bald eagles, bears and all sorts of wildlife. We were really looking forward to it, only we wake up at 5 am in Skagway to find a major June rainstorm, with 25' sea swells and brutal fog...basically EVERY excursion was canceled, and there were 3 different cruise ships worth of people all packed in the streets of Skagway, a cute little town that couldn't handle that volume. We ended up taking the absolutely stuffed Yukon Pass Railroad trip, which was 2 hours too long, passed on a 90-minute wait at the Red Onion Saloon, walked around a bit in the rain before returning to the ship where we literally drank the rest of the day away, which predictably led to a second fight. Ah, good times with the former Mrs C, per usual!!

Ketchikan, however, was a gem!

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I love that cruise. My wife and I have done 4 Alaskan cruises and enjoyed them all.

Skagway Brewery is nice but I’m sure it was super busy if all the excursions were cancelled.

All those Alaskan towns are great. What was the first fight about?

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It was a great cruise…I love Alaska. I’m gonna do the drive up to Anchorage, possibly as early as this May.

Everyone knows that when you travel, you’ve gotta be able to roll with the punches because flights get canceled, bags get lost, hotels screw-up reservations, etc…it happens. People that travel know this and deal with the inconveniences. The ex-Mrs. Jimmy C had a tendency to get all Veruca Salt-y on trips, and didn’t roll with the punches very well…Fight #1 was over what to do once EVERYTHING was canceled…finally settled on the train ride.

The DBD is therapeutic!

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Here's a racoon trying to catch snowflakes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfd9CDbB548

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Love the top comment.

Annual reminder to people: if you ever find yourself in a life threatening situation with only moments to achieve safety, please do us a favor of trying to keep the camera steady and on subject.

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I'm thankful they at least had the decency to film in landscape

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Home security

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we have a bunch of Nest camera, 4 indoors and 2 outdoors. but it is not clear how useful they are at anything. they might be, but i never go back and check.

in a funny AI-gone-wrong moment, the Nest cameras have some face detection/recognition so you can tag "regular" people in the house and it won't flag them as new or suspicious. it suggests faces that it has seen over and over again, so you can tag them and even name them.

because one of the cameras is in the TV room, it thinks that Steph Curry is a frequent visitor in my house!

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hahahaha

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Yes?

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Weather

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Mostly overcast but still warm enough to go out in short sleeve tee and shorts. Back to more normal tomorrow.

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It's been a lovely past week. I'd complain about how the lack of sun keeps everything damp and muddy, but it's been too nice being able to get out on my bike on a regular basis.

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I was surprised how muddy the C&O Canal towpath was when I ran on it this morning. I guess the overcast and foggy mornings keep it from drying much.

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unseasonably warm and rainy in NY. mid 60s yesterday. mid 50s today.

MLK weekend skiing is officially called off. need to find something else to do w/ 12 yr nephew in NYC for the weekend. probably subject him to some art museums and figure out how to fly his drone.

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Take him to the Intrepid! My dad and I went there on our most recent trip.

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thats a good idea. last time i went HAG was supposed to keep me occupied in NYC all day while my wife was setting up for surprise bday party back at the house

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That was a great trip. For your 39.5 bday. Love the Intrepid.

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OUR CRUMBLING DEMOCRACY

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10TH BALLOT UPDATE

McCarthy - 201

Jeffries - 212

Donalds - 13

Hern - 7

Others - 0

Present - 1

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It is being reported that there may be a deal that gets McCarthy closer to 218, but not a majority. The deal is being brokered by Chip Roy (Freedom Caucus) and Patrick McHenry (establishment GOP).

We're now going to an 11th ballot right now. Rep. French Hill (sounds like a geographical location, not a person) has nominated McCarthy.

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9TH BALLOT UPDATE

McCarthy - 201

Jeffries - 212

Donalds - 17

Hern - 3

Present - 1

We're headed to a 10th ballot, though it may not be today. Absolutely zero movement. I don't see any end in sight unless McCarthy withdraws, or 10 more members of the GOP decide to follow Victoria Spartz and vote "present".

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

8TH BALLOT UPDATE -

Same shit different ballot. Slight differences -

Kevin Hern (R-OK) now has received 2 votes, reducing Byron Donalds' total to 17.

Matt Gaetz voted again for DJT.

Spartz (R-IN) voted "present".

TOTALS

Hakeem Jeffries - 212 votes

Kevin McCarthy - 201 votes

Byron Donalds - 17 votes

Kevin Hern - 2 votes

Donald Trump - 1 vote

"Present" - 1 vote

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And Hern didn't vote for Hern

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What's the difference between preset and actually voting for someone? Does that mean you're there but don't actually vote for anyone?

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Voting "Present" is the same as not voting at all, taking your vote out of the equation. In effect, it lowers the required number of votes to take majority. Without a "Present" vote, someone needed 218 votes. If 10 GOP vote Present, Hakeem Jeffries becomes the Speaker. So it's a protest vote.

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The math is slightly different than what SGBear says.

One Rep-elect, McEachin (D, VA-4), died in late November. That means there are 434 members now, pending the filling of the vacant seat.

A bare majority of 435 is 218.

The GOP has 222 members-elect (nobody takes the Oath of Office until after a Speaker has been elected).

The Democrats have 212 members-elect. The Democrats have voted as a bloc, for Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority Leader. 212 is the bare majority of 423.

423 minus 212 = 211. 222 minus 211 = 11

11 GOP would have to vote "present" to elect Jeffries as Speaker.

If this GOP nonsense continues on beyond this weekend and the Democrats maintain bloc integrity, then you have to wonder if some GOP members-elect don't start to wonder if they can't break the impasse. You have to wonder if some GOP members-elect start talking among themselves to see who might be willing to break ranks. And the GOP members-elect most likely to do so are those who represent congressional districts that voted for Joe Biden.

I suddenly understand McCarthy's strategy. He's counting on bloc integrity within the GOP - no one will vote for anyone other than another GOP member-elect. He also may hope some Dems vote "present", which will not happen; that would be gravy to McCarthy. McCarthy expects the Freedom Caucus holdouts to be picked off one by one by repeated votes. He's counting on pressure from constituents back home to force recalcitrant Freedom Caucus members to ultimately vote for him. That and simple frustration.

The strategy is really rather risky. It assumes that fear and self-interest will keep the GOP membership in line.

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OOOooOOOOooooo

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

WaPo reports that on the 7th ballot, Matt Gaetz voted for Donald Trump for Speaker.

Ugh. I hoped that name would never be heard in the balloting.

EDIT: in case it wasn't abundantly clear, no one has been elected Speaker after conclusion of the 7th ballot. There are still 20 votes from the Freedom Caucus that are not for McCarthy. So much for the "we're moving closer" nonsense from McCarthy.

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8th ballot partway through: Boebert (CO) and Brescheen (OK) vote for Kevin Hern (OK). Gaetz votes for Trump again. Hern has been a McCarthy voter so far.

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Gaetz is just a troll.

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God forbid the the GOP and Dems could get together and find a moderate conservative who would promise to work on setting an agenda for actually accomplishing things and who the Dems could get behind. Its as if people expected them to resolve problems that can only be addressed by our federal government.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

Pennsylvania and Ohio just did this. Alaska has had a coalition for a while. NY had one until 2011-18 (the IDC, which actually gave power to Republicans) but that got broken with actual Dems firmly in control. State and Fed are different but there's a blueprint.

McCarthy SHOULD just kick the wingnuts to the curb since none of their ideas will get past the Dem-controlled Senate anyway. However, his caucus has plenty of people *sympathetic to* the wingnut coalition so giving Dems anything would be a bridge too far. And Dems will ask for a lot since they'd be bailing out the Republicans from their own ineptitude.

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After the past 15 years, if I were a Democratic representative I wouldn't trust a word from any Republican about compromise or working together. Many of their colleagues would rather watch democracy burn than give up power. I'd tell them to figure it out on their own

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Mine is more an idealist wish than a realist actuality.

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Strictly speaking, it's not the job of the democratic party to solve the factional disagreements in the republican party. As I saw someone point out on twitter, it's easy to understand why they might not bail out someone who decided to side with insurrectionists rather than his supposed colleagues.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

I'm not suggesting McCarthy. He's proven he wants the job so bad he'll make concessions to appease extremists who have no interest in solving our countries problems. For folk who might be interested in solving the problems of our country, the factional disagreements of the GOP might provide grounds for building a coalition of moderates. Not saying it wouldn't backfire, but I for one would be thrilled to take power away from the vocal, fringe minority. As it is, if a faction of 5 can call for a vote to recall the speaker, as McCarthy has conceded, then really that faction controls the entire agenda. It is simply unsustainable.

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...but it took them a few days to side with the insurrectionists.

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A senator from a state with a population less than the city of San Francisco might learn something from this, but I doubt it.

https://twitter.com/SenKevinCramer/status/1610775980582354945

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Sen. Casey Jr. (D-PA) diagnosed with prostate cancer. He says the prognosis is good.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

Prostate cancer does indeed have a pretty good prognosis (or at least characteristics of specific cases are predictable). I'd guess he'll get a robot assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy. Surgery 2-4 hours, maybe home next day. Only 62 so should do well.

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i assume i am 100% likely to get prostate cancer at some point. my dad and all 6 brothers had it at various ages.

i have been getting screened from a relatively early age ..

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What age do they recommend starting?

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Here's some guidelines. Typically 50 but can be earlier if family history.

https://www.cancer.org/cancer/prostate-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/acs-recommendations.html

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Just being male there's a good chance you'll get it eventually if you live long enough. In your case it's even higher. You're doing the smart thing getting screened (even though the tests are imperfect) and being vigilant.

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McCarthy loses 6th election yesterday. Back to it today.

https://twitter.com/keithedwards/status/1610675784213041153

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50 votes in and already four for Donalds.

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This is a wonderful preview of how little to expect from the majority party over the next two years.

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Sen Stabenow (D-MI) will not seek re-election in 2024. Stabenow beat her opponent by about 6 points in 2018.

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Hopefully Dems have someone decent on the bench.

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I saw a summary of Dem statewide office holders in Michigan. All of the high profile offices are held by Democratic women. Plus there are at least 2 high profile US Reps who are Democratic women. The bench looks pretty deep.

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Pass

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It would be kinda nice to have someone on the football team who can pass the ball next season. And some large people to protect that passer and some people to catch the passes too...

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And rich people to pay those people to come and stay in Berkeley.

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And maintain and improve our ability to impede the passer on the other team.

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You know what might work? Flooding the field 2 meters deep with water. National champs in men's water polo, rowing, and swimming/diving. Look, I'm not saying it's 100% fool proof, but I'm just looking at observation-based evidence.

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I think you need more than two meters, especially for diving. But otherwise I like it.

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Like the mock Naval battles they held in the Colosseum?

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Never put Navy on the schedule

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Ugh, Aloha Bowl….

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Elsewhere in college

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Rick Singer - the mastermind behind the Varsity Blues college admissions scandal - is sentenced to 3.5 years in jail

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/us/william-rick-singer-sentencing-college-admissions-scandal/index.html

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that's what happens when you try and fuck with the system to get results for kind-of-rich people like they were genuinely rich and influential people.

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Their biggest mistake was not adding another 0 or two to the end of the bribe check.

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[MBB] Georgetown's John Thompson Jr. had a 0.714 winning percentage. His son JT3 had 0.653 winning average. Patrick Ewing has had a 0.437 average. But he's just lost his 25th straight conference game stretching back to two seasons ago.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/35381864/georgetown-sets-dubious-mark-25th-straight-big-east-loss

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Don't let Knowlton know him. He'll either use Ewing as proof of Fox's success, or hire him.

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Just wait until Patrick Ewing, Jr. takes control.

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pqtm

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The don't call him P-Eww for nothing.

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I didn't know Ewing was a coach

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I guess Cal BB could be worse...

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

Cal basketball IS worse. Georgetown at least beats the mid-majors on it's schedule...well, mostly. ;-)

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Cal has beaten one Pac-12 team at least. But yeah...

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and I was there!

causation, not correlation ;-)

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So basically you're saying you need to attend every Cal BB game going forward and we'll win the natty!

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True. But losing buy games to mid-majors is really bad, man, and the national media takes notice...

I'd probably rather go 0-for P12 play, yet have beaten UCD, UCSD, Southern, Texas St and Eastern Washington...better to be the worst in the Conference rather than the worst in the Country, I suppose. But again, NEITHER is a good thing... ;-)

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Not sure that Bob agrees with that ;-)

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[MBB] Texas A&M's equipment manager had one job. And he cost his team a point. aTm ended up winning by 3 anyways.

https://uproxx.com/dimemag/texas-am-florida-forgot-jerseys-hotel-delay-game-technical-video/

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Rampant tampering, inducing of college football players has coaches unsure about best path forward

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/rampant-tampering-inducing-of-college-football-players-has-coaches-unsure-about-best-path-forward/

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I really have no problem with this. It is much like you and I working a job. Would we turn down an offer to make more money at a more successful and high profile company to stick with a company where our boss (Musgrave) was just fired, our GM (Wilcox) is struggling and the CEO (Knowlton) is incompetent, our coworkers can’t seem to perform the basics of their job (OL), and our direct supervisor position is vacant (QB). Add in that the current company may get downsized in the next year and it is no wonder why JMike left.

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I only have a problem as far as the tampering, which is clearly happening. When there's evidence of such, it should be punished. Latu's UCLA deal was especially suspect.

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It's so obvious that it's ridiculous. In Cal's case, it's Oladejo and JMike. Screw you, Chip Kelly. A pox on you Mark Emmert. It's funny how obvious it is and how silent most coaches are. I mean, why complain when new NCAA leadership is all-in on making sure on creating a CFB Premier League because it will only make you look weak?

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023Author

Rose Bowl viewership reached all time low, down 40% year-on-year

https://theathletic.com/4059138/2023/01/04/rose-bowl-lowest-viewership-ever-penn-state-utah/

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Fools. See, they should have invited Cal.

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The Rose Bowl has really become the Granddaddy of them all in the sense granddad has been put in a home, receiving hospice care, is largely neglected by its kids, and it’s grandkids don’t come to visit.

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I didn't watch a single play, though partly because I was completely footballed out and didn't give two schitts...I hate the Utah Utes.

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I would have been perfectly happy to see the Utes win, as I don't care for Penn State at all, but I guess they wore themselves out carrying around those massive chips on their shoulders about beating SC twice.

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I've hated the Utes ever since the 2004 season...for all the talk of Mack Brown's pandering for Longhorn votes, it was Urban Meyer and Utah's undefeated season out of the MWC that allowed them to crash the BCS party, which really kept Cal out of the Rose Bowl. To see them be a dominant program in the P12 now just pisses me off.

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Goodness knows Cal winning more games can't be counted on to improve their standing in the process.

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I'm guessing it's a combination of an uninteresting matchup for most of the country and that it was on the 2nd rather than January 1st.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

there were no college bowl games on Jan 1 this year i think. only NFL games on Sun.

i thought i previous years when Jan 1 fell on a Sun, they would move NFL games to Sat and keep New Years bowls on Jan 1.

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Not so. The NFL owns Sundays. New Year's Day bowl games are on any other day than Sunday. If NYD falls on a Sunday, the date of the bowl game is moved to January 2 (more common) or December 31 (less common).

As Tangtpt recounts, the Rose Bowl parade and game do not happen on Sunday because of an agreement with local churches. It's my understanding that this also influenced the never on Sunday rule for other bowl games because the Granddaddy of Them All is never on a Sunday.

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Jan 5, 2023Liked by SGBear

Certainly not for the Rose Bowl, and I had assumed that it was because the NFL owned Sundays, but as it turns out, it was for a much older reason. Back in the early days, the Rose Parade would go by a number of churches along the route. The parade organizers did not want to disturb worshipers during services, so they made a rule that the parade would not ever take place on a Sunday and move it to the 2nd when it does. Well, since the Rose Bowl can't happen without the Rose Parade, the game would be moved, too.

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I think it was less about not disturbing the worshipers but rather about not disturbing the worshipers' horses outside the churches.

As an aside (as a Pasadena resident), yes, there are still a lot of churches on Colorado Ave. Also, the flyovers are rather resonating; this year we had two B-1B Lancers. Last year, it was a stealth bomber.

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i stand corrected. thanks

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That's pretty interesting. I didn't watch it. I saw the score and figured it was over.

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PRO

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

Hamlin continues to improve. Lungs are better (as expected) and, most importantly, he's "neurologically intact." It does not seem like he has anoxic brain injury (a catastrophic outcome after cardiac arrest). I can't say he will return to sports but he should walk out of the hospital in good shape.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1611024846430822401?s=19

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

More details. Still on ventilator but is writing questions on a clipboard. Asked who won the game. Real progress!

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/sport/damar-hamlin-collapse-bills-status-thursday/index.html

And a bit more description about his ICU care. Basically what I had thought based on family interviews but this is from the medical source.

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/damar-hamlin-buffalo-bills-update-01-05-23/h_8cd6f8c4cf9f5e6c32a6b7af7afbae4a

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CAL

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Jermaine Terry in the portal.

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Spavital, come on please sign a QB.

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Terry was my breakout guy last year...he really underwhelmed, though the entire O was a disaster.....

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Go Bears!!!

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Cal's QB room gains a PWO. He's a 2 star local from Larkspur's Redwood HS. His senior year, he threw 67.7% completion rate for 189 YPG and >4:1 TD:INT ratio.

https://twitter.com/WeingartBrady/status/1610854861977030656

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

He misspelled Berkeley in his bio. But, that aside, as a PWO it's fine though he probably won't see playing time.

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I've seen a lot of ppl spell it Berkley but not Berkely.

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Is this why JMS decided to transfer?

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From the Front Page: JMike in the portal

https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-wr-jmichael-sturdivant

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also, the lack of understanding of what is happening and why on the front page is truly astounding. J Mike hasnt left yet and would prefer to stay but Cal donors need to pony up a bit. Tough to turn down a 6 figure bump on your NIL

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You know, I think most people understand exactly why he's transferring. That's why we kept saying everyday from midseason "I hope Ott doesn't transfer" "I hope JMS doesn't transfer". Actually now that I think about it, everyone was saying they will hit the portal as soon as it opens up. I think the panic comes because the portal had been open for a month and they didn't hit the portal and we all expected them to return next season. But if we go back to midseason, we all expected them good as gone.

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If you like baseless speculation and Rob R.'s long digressions and wikipedia links, along with a liberal sprinkling of panic, the front page is where it's at.

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But Bob R. has not posted in JMS's article yet.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

Almost as disappointing as learning that JMS entered the portal.

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Be disappointed no longer as I just got email notification from W4C that he replied to one of the comments on that article.

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And that’s exactly why I limit my front page posting.

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How wild is it that the stuff Reggie Bush lost his Heisman over is now just de rigeur in order to keep your good players.

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even wilder that it was an incentive for him to _leave_ SC

(I am not saying that no money changed hands for him to _enroll_ at SC, but that's not what the fuss was about)

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Money whipped for the winnnnnnnn

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