What ESPN picking up ACC media rights through 2036 means for Cal
The California Golden Bears have been granted a reprieve from further conference realignment movements...at least for a few more years.
With ESPN picking up its option to broadcast ACC sports through 2036, the conference gains stability for the near future. Here are the major bullet points to take away from this announcement.
The ACC Is Likely Staying Intact Through 2031
The deal was scheduled to end in 2027, but with the price that ESPN picked up the contract nearly a decade and a half ago, it seemed like an inevitability that the Worldwide Leader would be picking up the next deal.
The decision aligns with ongoing efforts to settle legal disputes with Clemson and Florida State, which have challenged the ACC Grant of Rights that was meant to lock in member programs until at least the 2036 season. While no immediate exits are expected, discussions are centered on financial restructuring to keep top programs content. The move reduces the likelihood of conference realignment before 2031, as schools now have a clearer financial outlook and fewer immediate exit options.
Cal Athletics as we know it probably could not survive having to undergo a second round of realignment in its current condition. This deal is good for Cal in the short-term and gives us some wiggle room to get better in the revenue sports at a crucial time for the program.
How Revenue Distributions Will Change
The ACC is developing a new revenue distribution model to address financial disparities among its schools. A proposed "brand" fund would allocate a portion of TV revenue to programs generating the most value, with Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina expected to benefit the most. This plan builds upon the existing "success initiatives," which reward postseason performance.
The goal is to narrow the financial gap between the top ACC schools and their Big Ten/SEC counterparts, so it gets reduced to just a few million dollars annually. Final approval is pending on this front.
This will likely anger other mid-range ACC programs who could see a cut in revenue unless ESPN did bump the revenue payout. Ultimately for Cal, this doesn’t change their situation too directly—the Bears were already scheduled for reduced revenue payouts through 2031. But it makes it more imperative than ever for the Bears to perform well via success metrics. This means finishing in the top 25 or garnering playoff appearances in football, and March Madness wins in men’s and eventually women’s basketball.
Leveraging Notre Dame for Revenue and Marquee Matchups
Notre Dame’s relationship with the ACC could play a role in the conference’s efforts to increase revenue and competitiveness. The ACC is exploring ways to create more marquee matchups, potentially involving Notre Dame playing additional games against top ACC teams like Clemson, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina. Notre Dame already plays five to six ACC football games per season and is a full member in other sports.
Leveraging this partnership could help boost the ACC’s TV value and provide stronger matchups for ESPN, aligning with the conference’s new revenue distribution strategy.
The concern for Cal is that this will likely lessen their chances to get a marquee matchup for TV ratings, like a regular football game with Notre Dame. Notre Dame generally has a regular Bay Area ACC matchup aligned with Stanford, although that is scheduled to end in 2025, so there was hope that Cal could wiggle in here and get some more games with the Irish for the added TV revenue.
Filibustering Clemson and FSU’s Exit Plan Until 2031
While the ESPN deal strengthens the ACC’s position to at least keep the conference intact for the near future, it also serves as a temporary measure delaying Clemson and Florida State’s potential departure. Both schools are dissatisfied with the conference's financial structure, arguing that it limits their competitiveness on a national scale. While the financial restructuring should benefit these programs, it will also be unlikely to keep up with the eventual Big Ten and SEC payouts their member schools receive.
As part of an eventual settlement, the ACC appears to have agreed to reduced penalties for Clemson and Florida State potentially breaking the Grant of Rights in 2031. This would align with the expiration of other major TV contracts in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12, which would likely be when the next round of major conference realignment would occur.
The likelihood of their exit remains high once financial and legal obstacles are minimized. The only way Florida State and Clemson (and perhaps a North Carolina) don’t seek new homes in 2031 is if realignment efforts end up stretching the Big Ten and SEC in costly operational ways that we haven’t yet comprehended.
Ultimately, the ACC has been granted a stay of demolition, and there is now the remainder of the decade for the California Golden Bears to put the pieces back in place. They must get good at football and men’s basketball. They will need to attract as many donations as possible.
It is not going to be easy. It’ll be an all-hands-on-deck situation, from the athletic department to the university to the coaches to keep moving in the right direction. Cal football still is perpetually moored at .500 and Cal men’s basketball has not qualified for March Madness in nearly a decade.
Time to keep moving up, or face a reckoning.
Thanks Avi. Great article.
If we're doing value-based brand allocation, then the exit fee should also be value-based. Whatever annual multiplier is agreed upon should apply to the exit. So it should cost FSU MORE to leave. Essentially, they decide how they want their bonus paid: annually or at the end/exit.
It would also help Cal get to the B1G because our buyout would be cheaper, though we'd probably offered a reduced B1G share just as our ACC share increases. All this SHOULD be stabilizing overall.