On pondering the situation more, it seems highly unlikely that there will be a football season this Fall. Hope the guys don't lose a year of eligibility. So I guess Chase will be a junior in 2021?
Herbstreit could not be more right. In California, only part of the population is sheltering in place, and in many other states, people are simply in denial about Covid-19.
The U.S. is doubling cases every 3 DAYS! In very short order we will have 30 million infected, with 3 million deaths. It's simple math, folks.
By August the last thing anyone will be worried about is college football.
Bear78, the math can't be that simple since you're so far off. Deaths are about 1.5% and that's of known cases. It's probably much lower since nobody can get tested. So you assuming 10% of people will die is beyond absurd. Did you go to Arizona or cal?
The confirmed infection rate in the U.S. is growing exponentially, doubling every three days. Infected cases as of Mar-27 in the U.S. now over 101,000. The 1.5% death rate now is before U.S. hospital capacity is overrun. Italy’s current death rate is 5%. Agree 10% is too high but once the medical system is overrun all bets are off. Though 5% would be horrific, yes? U.S. has blown Italy off the map in terms of where we are now & where Italy was at a comparable stage.
Lack of testing means infection rates are much higher in the U.S., not lower, since many many people are infected, spreading Covid-19, and don't think they have it. 14 days infected before first symptoms appear.
Mitigation efforts are only partially effective, guaranteeing exponential growth rate will continue. We're only in the early part of the exponential growth curve right now. The growth curve is not flattening at all in the U.S.
Last I saw, Korea’s death rate was as low as 0.6%. They’ve been on top of things from the get-go. Unfortunately, we look a lot more like Italy right now. Hopefully we can bend the curve a bit better so we don’t end up with such a dire mortality rate. Some good things are happening- I just heard this morning that Abbott developed a test that gives results in 15 minutes, and it starts shipping next week. A high volume of fast tests will allow the US to finally get control of things, but the almost 2 months of wasted time means a LOT of death and suffering in the meantime.
Barring a miracle cure in the next few months, I’m firmly in the pessimist camp about football this fall.
I hate saying it, but South Korea both had experience with SARS/MERS (the other two nasty coronaviruses) and competent leadership. We, uh, have mostly neither. (Mostly, because there's a lot of governors that are doing their jobs, but the federal leadership is, um, noticeably lacking.)
There will be a lot of "what ifs" coming from Cal if that's the case (Chase being Chase with a good stable of RBs behind an experienced line, with NFL talent in the Def. Backfield, etc.). Just like there is with UO Women's basketball, Dayton's men's bball, and a whole host of Olympians, etc. I know, there's no end to this list. If football doesn't happen we'll all be certain we'd have beaten teams breaking in new QBs (UO, UW), maybe picked up a USC win, and this would have been the year we beat all our Pac12 California foes...... Sigh. I sure hope it doesn't come to this but I can't say Herbie is wrong. And yes, I realize sports is low on the list of important losses during this time (like loved ones people are losing around the globe), but this IS a sports blog........
Granted, if it happens, there'll probably be a blanket eligibility extension like there was for the spring sports, but there'll be some fun with football scholly limits and such.
On pondering the situation more, it seems highly unlikely that there will be a football season this Fall. Hope the guys don't lose a year of eligibility. So I guess Chase will be a junior in 2021?
Just what I needed, another reason to be depressed.
Even if as a nation we had things under control by fall, college football would be rocky without spring and summer practice.
I think rocky college football would be the last thing anyone would worry about.
Herbstreit could not be more right. In California, only part of the population is sheltering in place, and in many other states, people are simply in denial about Covid-19.
The U.S. is doubling cases every 3 DAYS! In very short order we will have 30 million infected, with 3 million deaths. It's simple math, folks.
By August the last thing anyone will be worried about is college football.
Update from Dr. Fauci: Between 100,000 & 200,00 deaths, “millions” of infections.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Top+Stories%29
Yes. That math is correct. You said 3M deaths.
Unfortunately, I can't edit the original post.
Bear78, the math can't be that simple since you're so far off. Deaths are about 1.5% and that's of known cases. It's probably much lower since nobody can get tested. So you assuming 10% of people will die is beyond absurd. Did you go to Arizona or cal?
The confirmed infection rate in the U.S. is growing exponentially, doubling every three days. Infected cases as of Mar-27 in the U.S. now over 101,000. The 1.5% death rate now is before U.S. hospital capacity is overrun. Italy’s current death rate is 5%. Agree 10% is too high but once the medical system is overrun all bets are off. Though 5% would be horrific, yes? U.S. has blown Italy off the map in terms of where we are now & where Italy was at a comparable stage.
Lack of testing means infection rates are much higher in the U.S., not lower, since many many people are infected, spreading Covid-19, and don't think they have it. 14 days infected before first symptoms appear.
Mitigation efforts are only partially effective, guaranteeing exponential growth rate will continue. We're only in the early part of the exponential growth curve right now. The growth curve is not flattening at all in the U.S.
Take a look at this:
https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus-74d45e2c90c2?source=rss----458a773bccd2---4
Hope you're right.
Last I saw, Korea’s death rate was as low as 0.6%. They’ve been on top of things from the get-go. Unfortunately, we look a lot more like Italy right now. Hopefully we can bend the curve a bit better so we don’t end up with such a dire mortality rate. Some good things are happening- I just heard this morning that Abbott developed a test that gives results in 15 minutes, and it starts shipping next week. A high volume of fast tests will allow the US to finally get control of things, but the almost 2 months of wasted time means a LOT of death and suffering in the meantime.
Barring a miracle cure in the next few months, I’m firmly in the pessimist camp about football this fall.
I hate saying it, but South Korea both had experience with SARS/MERS (the other two nasty coronaviruses) and competent leadership. We, uh, have mostly neither. (Mostly, because there's a lot of governors that are doing their jobs, but the federal leadership is, um, noticeably lacking.)
if it happens, let's just say we would have beaten every opponent on schedule.
2020 national champions.
There will be a lot of "what ifs" coming from Cal if that's the case (Chase being Chase with a good stable of RBs behind an experienced line, with NFL talent in the Def. Backfield, etc.). Just like there is with UO Women's basketball, Dayton's men's bball, and a whole host of Olympians, etc. I know, there's no end to this list. If football doesn't happen we'll all be certain we'd have beaten teams breaking in new QBs (UO, UW), maybe picked up a USC win, and this would have been the year we beat all our Pac12 California foes...... Sigh. I sure hope it doesn't come to this but I can't say Herbie is wrong. And yes, I realize sports is low on the list of important losses during this time (like loved ones people are losing around the globe), but this IS a sports blog........
Granted, if it happens, there'll probably be a blanket eligibility extension like there was for the spring sports, but there'll be some fun with football scholly limits and such.
Wait. An ESPN guy with a clue?
The last one...
Hope not but if it happens, it happens...better safe than sorry.