Evans Hall: Pictures Say a 1000 Words
Nice Data-visualizations say 2000, Good Memes say
Leland Stanford Junior University, 51 weeks out of the year they are a good school that just happens to have the unfortunate luck of having some of the worst human beings to ever waste oxygen graduate from there. But during the single glorious week of The Big Game, they are to be dunked on, derided to the point of tears staining the silver spoons in their orifices, and to be consoled by their butlers and maids.
A week where we point out that the only difficulty that comes with being a Stanford student is the knowledge they will never be as cool as a Berkeley graduate, where despite having a top 15 football team for damn near a decade their stadium was emptier than the morals of a crypto-bro with a BS from Stanford.
THE AXE IS OURS! Big and Small gains.
There is a plethora of edges the Cal offense had this game that it didn’t have in earlier iterations of the Cal football experiment.
Here we can see the heavier bias towards the passing game vis a vis the running game, we still clocked in a dismal 3-14 3rd down percentage, however, in this case we were much better at converting the 1st and 2nd down opportunities. At 13 drives we were just over 1 3rd down per drive which is very low for Cal. Something worth noting is the number of explosive plays through the air when we were able to hit them. As well as the # of short 3rd downs the offense had vis-a-vis the past.
The offense livening up also shows on the EPA/PPA data spread. Cal rarely found themselves in net negative gains vis a vis Stanford’s defensive production (besides 3rd down passing) and even in the anemic run game we didn’t put ourselves behind and within expectations.
Cal defense made 1st downs miserable for Stanford. Removing the 1st down rush by wildcat QB Ashton Daniels Stanford was unable to get anything on the ground past the sticks. This put pressure on the passing game where none of the receptions went past 25 yards and most didn’t gain explosive yards, forcing Stanford to plod down the field.
Victory that Lifts Statistical Boats
We’re still ahead of Stanford in overall offensive production even if the production looks depressing, but still in line with the expected TD to DSR ratios.
Same story here, Cal has the ability and skill guys to move up to just being mediocre, the next OC hire will be key since there is a lot to gain just by adding a single touchdown per game with the number of plays the offense has per game. Add 10 more points per game and we’re 8-3 this season with wins against ND, SC, Colorado, and UW. With how poorly we have played on early downs there is a lot of space for such gains,
The offense being able to stay on the field against Stanford is evidence that if we can bring the average length to-go on 2nd and 3rd downs to a <7 yards level this offense can function.
Defense remains roughly the same over the course of the season. Though we are pretty high on the x-axis, this is a point of improvement: force shorter drives by opposing offenses and it will cut down on the number of points allowed.
0.00 EPA/PPA on offense on 1st downs ain’t going away soon, early down performance by the offense will be something we will have to monitor in 2023 with the new OC and to see if the offense from which the OC would come has a good 1st down playcalling feel. We improve on 1st downs and life becomes so much easier.
Great analysis. Thanks. And Go Bears beat fUCLA!
Outstanding (in the field)