Cal bowl projections: Los Angeles likely, but still some options

The LA Bowl with Gronk has felt like where the Bears will be for awhile.

Photo by Daniel Lee on Unsplash

As you might know already, despite the dissolution of our beautiful Conference of Champions, the Pac-12 will maintain the same set of postseason bowls, at least through the 2025-26 season.

The Pac-12 bowl order goes like this.

• Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12

• Holiday Bowl vs. ACC

• Las Vegas Bowl vs. SEC

• Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl vs. ACC

• LA Bowl vs. Mountain West

• Independence Bowl vs. Big 12

Here are the former Pac-12 teams eligible for a bowl game.

• 12-0 Oregon

• 10-2 Arizona State

• 9-3 Colorado

• 8-4 Washington State

• 6-6 Cal

• 6-6 Washington

• 6-6 USC

Undefeated Oregon is going to the College Football Playoff regardless of the result of the B1G Championship Game. If they beat Penn State, they will almost certainly be selected to end up in the Rose Bowl on January 1. The tradition stays somewhat alive! (If they lose, the Ducks will host a first round playoff game in Autzen on December 20/21.)

Arizona State has basically two scenarios at play—they could end up in the College Football Playoff if they beat Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship this Saturday. If they lose, they fall into the standard Pac-12 bowl order.

Alamo Bowl: BYU is projected to end up here. If ASU loses, it’s unlikely the Alamo Bowl will pick them, as the two teams played each other two weeks ago. Expect Colorado to end up here in most scenarios and be the first pick off the board.

Holiday Bowl: This is the first bowl that has a bit of variability, assuming Arizona State wins. Washington State is being projected; the Cougars faded down the stretch though, and are now without quarterback John Mateer (in the portal) and both coordinators, so that could lead the Holiday to look further down the line.

The Holiday Bowl is unlikely for the Trojans, as USC played there last year. However, Arizona State losing on Saturday would almost certainly place them in San Diego.

Because it’s an ACC matchup, I’d expect Cal to not be considered here, particularly if it’s a team they’ve already played like Syracuse.

Vegas Bowl: It will be hard for the Vegas Bowl to ignore USC in this spot because of the brand cache, the fact that they already played in Vegas to start the season and reasonably filled out the stadium, and to pair them in another marquee SEC matchup. However, if Arizona State loses the Big 12 title game, chaos could reign. Anyone from Cal to USC to Washington to Washington State is alive here. Still, I like USC’s chances here, considering the alternatives.

Sun Bowl: This is also an ACC matchup, so it’s again unlikely Cal gets picked here (our El Paso drought lasts a little longer). I think this goes to Washington if Arizona State wins, and USC is alive here if ASU loses. Expect Washington to be rooting hard for Arizona State on Saturday to avoid the ignominy of Shreveport.

Los Angeles Bowl: This is a lot of words to just get us to Cal, but consensus has formed nationally around an early trip to Gronk’s bowl in just over two weeks. Ultimately, it’s going to be a logistical nightmare like last year, with players in the midst of finals week. But at least our sizable Southern California contingent will get their Bears in person after losing the yearly USC and UCLA contingent.

Independence Bowl: Cal played here last year so we will not end up here again for a second year in a row. Expect this to be Washington or Washington State if ASU loses or this bowl to not be filled if they win.

The big variable is how obligated any of these Pac-12 teams are to pick based on record; if it does, Washington State is obligated to be picked by the Holiday Bowl. Otherwise, they could go tumbling. But I’d say right now it’s looking like:

• Rose: Oregon

• CFB Playoff: Arizona State

• Alamo: Colorado

• Holiday: Washington State

• Vegas: USC

• Sun: Washington

• LA: Cal

Cal fans, which bowl game would you expect the Bears to end up in, and which bowl game would you like to go to?