Pac-12 extinction speculation: Arizona & Big 12 rumors fly, Pac-12 unable to deliver numbers
A lot of Arizona Wildcats sources seem to be confident that they will be in the Big 12 by 2024. Their likely move could decide who goes next.
The fallout from Colorado’s surprise move to the Big 12 continues to be felt throughout Pac-12 football. The major program of note is the Arizona Wildcats, who are apparently the biggest target of Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark.
The Pac-12 doomsday clock ticks as Colorado departure puts the conference on life support
Cal fans, I don’t want to alarm you, but we’re in trouble. Colorado’s surprise return to the Big 12 casts a pall on any potential Pac-12 media rights deal at the worst possible time. If Colorado returned to the Big 12 on a modest $31.7 million a year deal, it has to indicate that
If Arizona were to leave, it could set off a series of dominoes that could land Arizona State and Utah in the Big 12 fairly soon after, and the Pac-12 as we know it would officially be dead. More from 247Sports:
Yormark's primary target is Arizona, sources tell 247Sports. The university is open to discussing its future and the Big 12 has communicated with the Wildcats' leadership for several months. Members of Arizona's board of regents have expressed a desire to keep Arizona State and Arizona in the same conference, sources tell 247Sports, but that is not expected to be a roadblock if the Wildcats want to go alone and join Colorado in the Big 12. Arizona State's university leadership has been cautious with the changing landscape and is not bullish on moving to the Big 12, sources tell 247Sports.
Utah has remained committed to the Pac-12 throughout this wild year (both publicly and privately) and likely needs one more Pac-12 mate (Arizona or Arizona State) to move before they contemplate a new home, sources tell 247Sports.
There are other present rumors about the Big 12 going after UConn and several other G5 programs, but make no mistake, the three remaining Four Corner schools are the biggest targets left on the board.
The Pac-12 issued this response after the departure of Colorado, indicating that they will continue to pursue expansion.
However, it’s hard to imagine the Pac-12 having any juice left if they lose another one to three members, as is rumored will be the case in the coming months.
And now we enter speculation-ville.
NOTE: This is speculation, please do not share and attribute the below as actual gospel of the written word.
The rumor going around college football is what spurred Colorado’s decision to join the Pac-12 has been a state of limbo between conference leadership and university presidents regarding the state of the TV media deal.
Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was unable to provide satisfactory figures for team payouts, potential over-the-air or streaming partners that would carry conference sports, or updates on who could be counted on to join the conference.
With that uncertainty in place, Colorado, who had been rumored for months to be performing their due diligence in exploring best options for their future, pulled the trigger on returning to the Big 12.
A follow-up meeting between the remaining Pac-9 programs and Kliavkoff again led to little of substance, which has triggered Arizona to follow in the footsteps of Colorado and potentially announce their own move in the near future.
Not quite as confirmed is ASU and Utah starting to take their own steps as well to exit the conference. But the Big 12 TV rights allow a pro rata clause stipulating that the financial value of the deal increases accordingly when the Big 12 adds a Power 5 school. So every member that signs on should increase the potential revenue share. This lends credence to the theory that ASU and Utah could be convinced that their best financial plan would be to move to the Big 12.
There have been idle rumors that if the Big Ten keeps its doors shut to Oregon, that Oregon would also look at the Big 12 and potentially take a spot away. But Oregon would hesitate to lose its partnership with Washington, so you’d imagine the two will want to keep their eyes set high on the Big Ten, and a USC/UCLA pod.
Likewise, it’d be hard to imagine Cal and Stanford breaking up. And the Big Ten is certainly their North Star. But there is definite reluctance for the Big Ten to pursue more expansion candidates unless they absolutely have to. The pressing would probably have to come from the TV networks pouring the money into the conference (FOX, CBS, NBC).
It’s quite possible if Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford were invited, it’d be on a reduced revenue share compared to what USC and UCLA received. Cal would potentially be amenable to that arrangement, since the UC Regents said some of UCLA’s Big Ten revenue share would need to go to Cal for essentially sabotaging the revenue share of the Golden Bears in a future Pac-12 television deal.
Although there is bad blood from previous Big 12/Pac-12 mergers and partnerships being stonewalled by Cal and Stanford, it’s likely that the Big 12 would accept the two programs if they really came calling. However, there have been no signs that either Cal or Stanford are interested in a Big 12 invite due to academic mismatches, and potential cultural and political reasons.
There seem to be several paths forward for Cal: A last minute invite from the Big Ten; a Hail Mary invite from the ACC; or hanging on in whatever the Pac-12 becomes when the major programs depart and Mountain West programs come calling, even if it means relegation from major college football.
Our answer might be coming sooner than we’d like.
This slow death is agonizing to watch. 😞
I don’t see how the Pac12 survives this. We are in a self fulfilling, death spiral now.
The Pac12 needs a media deal that pays out each program in the $25-32 million range. It seems like they weren’t getting that number so they were holding out but then Colorado left and as more schools look to leave the less money networks will be willing to pay.