Rating the Bears: Cal vs. Oregon State Football
And now for something completely different...
Several times this season I have remarked that we are all experts in rating excruciating, agonizing, single-score losses. But this week we are in uncharted territory. Justin Wilcox’s teams rarely enjoy blowout victories. You can count previous blowouts on one hand (37-3 over Wazzu in 2017, 49-7 over OSU in 2018, 26-3 over Colorado in 2021, 41-11 over LSJU in 2021, 33-7 over UCLA in 2023). And now, we finally need a second hand to count blowout win number six: Saturday’s delightful romp in Strawberry Canyon. With so little experience rating such games (6 out of 79 games under Wilcox), do we even know how to evaluate such a win?
Look at those tiny standard deviations—this may be new to us but our ratings were generally all pretty close to each other. The only categories with notable spreads in their ratings were rush offense and coaching (I’m surprised to see such an elevated SD for coaching given its high rating). Everything else was around 90 with a standard deviation between 6 and 9.
After this whirlwind season we are now back to exactly where we were with our preseason predictions of a win over Wake Forest.
Ratings Comparison
In previous weeks I’ve skipped the opponent-level ratings comparison because we do not have enough data on these ACC teams (and we won’t accumulate a meaningful amount of data before the next conference merry-go-round). But this week we played a familiar opponent! Let us bask in how well this game compared to our wild recent history with the Beavers.
Run offense was slightly better than usual for an OSU game. But everything else was at or near record-highs. Pass offense, run defense, special teams, and overall were all the highest we have ever seen against OSU. And to emphasize how wildly inconsistent the team’s performances have been against OSU recently, look at the size of those boxes! They capture data between the 25th and 75th percentiles and in many categories that represents about a 50-point difference, largely due to the number of blowout wins and losses in the data.
Compared to the rest of the Wilcox Era, this one was well above average.
Again, run offense was not great. Coaching was “only” around the 75th percentile. Everything else? Just short of record highs.
Awards
As always, we have fifteen awards to hand out across three categories.
Sunshine Pumpers
First, the highest ratings of the week. Numbers in parentheses denote the number of previous wins for that award.
Calamo has company atop the box this week.
Old Blues
Next, our lowest ratings of the week.
Only one failing grade this week! That’s a big improvement over recent weeks.
The Voice of Reason
Finally, those whose ratings were closest to the community average.
2.57! That’s the lowest score we have seen all year!
And now, let’s turn those excellent ratings into some very happy and relieved words.
Comments
Any comments on the gameday experience?
Old Bear 71: Being somewhat relaxed heading into 4th quarter was a luxurious moment!
Ron: Finally! Really, really fun, and stress-free, to finally get a huge win, hitting on all cylinders. I couldn't care less who the opponent was, we played great and deserved a huge win.
Goldenone: We may have turned the season around
AKBear: Felt uncertain at the start of the game but the first possession ending in a TD helped to calm the nerves, but any time it’s still a 2-score game or closer means that it’s anyone’s game when Cal is involved. So I tried to keep distracted by checking out what the #Calgorithm was up to.
HaasBear: I took the weekend off and played golf during the game. Was pleasantly surprised by the score updates. Perhaps I should play more golf, can someone tell my wife please?
GoldenBear88: Fantastic! Went surfing this morning, caught some fun waves to get my mind calm and then watched Cal take out it's frustrations on the Beavs.
Bowlesman80: As an OSU-traumatized fan, considering the several times, they spoiled our good seasons and buried us in the bad seasons, I watched with a jaundice eye. In fact, I am still waiting for some technicality to overturn our win.
Paranoid? No, just a Cal fan.
GlueAndBold: Nice to actually beat the Beavs for once, even if took their program falling to ruins to do it.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Perfect weather, and got to see an old college friend and his family for the first time since last year. Yay for no fire warnings and a return of the Rally Cannon. A surprisingly stress-free game, the first since...I dunno when. Attendance was predictably atrocious. No idea where ESPN got the attendance number of 33,000+ - that must only have been tickets sold.
sacman701: Missed the game. I was in Placerville hanging with a college friend I had been estranged from for 26 years.
What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?
Big Dog: Half the season over, and we finally pass on 1st down to setup the run
Ron: Excellent. Nando played great and he finally got the pass protection he so richly deserves.
AKBear: Pass offense was good but still would like to see more separation from WRs and it seemed that Mendoza was still missing open WRs. Does he lock into a WR still too much?
KJ1980: Mendoza had a very good day. He did so both scrambling and running. The O line did not seem to be providing great protection. Mendoza hit many different receivers.
MoochPunt: Nice to see Mendoza only getting hit when he crosses the line of scrimmage. Good job getting him moving on designed roll outs. Solid job by the receiving corps of catching the catchable balls.
GoldenBear88: Mendoza looked good but I wish he would learn how to slide! I think he takes too many hits when he takes off.
1988goldenbear: I don't know what percentage of the success was due to the quality of the Beavers defense, but Mendoza had a great game and spread the ball around. It felt like an out-of-conference cupcake game.
BlueDuck16: When we connect, we can do some solid damage. Our screen game doesn’t seem to work much and we don’t have a deep threat which limits our potential.
GlueAndBold: Near perfect. Nice to get Trond in the game more. Nando probably should have been a bit more conservative with his scrambling since he absolutely didn't need to be taking shots up big.
Willis Chong: Mike Bloesch figured out that we can use some of the people that we used last year to make our run. Dunno why we weren't throwing to Trond and Endries until just last week short of our coaching being weird. Hunter and Matthews were also still very involved, which is good that we have multiple pass options on our quick strike game.
Just cautioning that a better defense will probably not drop a sure interception when Nando tries to do too much. Also, need to work on the deep game.
Still, #LetNandoCook
sacman701: Slice and dice, and NO sacks. Not exactly elite opposition, but that was a comprehensive beatdown.
What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?
Big Dog: Good enough to keep the Beavs honest
Old Bear 71: Took a bit to get it going. But it only took two times for Wiley to cross the goal to get his touchdown.
Ron: Very good from all RB's. So nice to have Jayden back!!
AKBear: Still really MIA but hard to get going without run blocking. Might need to get short passes to Ott more often - like it’s a long hand off. Maybe run more sets from under center.
KJ1980: The running game was supposed to be the team's strength. With Ott injured, it's the team's biggest weakness. A weak O line makes a grind it out run offense impossible.
The Ghost of Joe Roth: Ott flashed signs of his old self. Can’t wait to what he does in two weeks.
MoochPunt: Jet Thomas must have been studying film of The Play.
GoldenBear88: Still needs a lot of work. Some silly penalties and still isn't opening run lanes for Ott and company.
TKE.Prytanis 79: Seems like we had trouble opening holes for Ott(so happy to see him back!!) or maybe he still doesn’t have his first step yet.
1988goldenbear: Still trying to find a run game... but today that didn't affect the passing game. I guess that is an improvement? Maybe not.
BlueDuck16: Our line just doesn’t have any push. It was far too difficult for us to punch the ball in to the end zone on super short yardage. We’re just so inefficient running the ball that we have to depend on our passing for actual gains.
Willis Chong: Ott is clearly still not 100%. Shades of 2007 when we weren't able to get short yardage when we needed it [ed: thank you for the flashbacks to the 2007 OSU game when Cal had 1st and goal from 2, ran the ball four straight times, and turned the ball over on downs ]. I know our O-line isn't the best, but we gotta do better here. To be fair, we did enough, but we should have been able
Also, #MakeNandoSlide
sacman701: Never really got going. This line still struggles to move people. We didn't need the run game to win this one, though.
What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?
Old Bear 71: They took one, prevented pretty
Much everything until garbage time.
wiata78: Not bad, but letting Oregon State convert several 4th and longs was annoying.
Goldenone: Pretty awesome 👍
AKBear: The 9-minute, 17 play drive gave me flashbacks of Miami game. Understand that maybe some of the starters were pulled but it felt like death by a thousand cuts once again.
Calboy76: Fantastic. The INT was incredibly athletic.
MoochPunt: Solid but not as disruptive as usual. Great job on the interception. But too many chunk plays given up to a struggling offense.
BTown85: Studs. Simple studs!
1988goldenbear: Really solid game for the defense, great containment, limited big plays.
BlueDuck16: Really good most of the game. Took away pass options and forced multiple three and outs. Can do better, but looking solid as usual.
BearsWillEndMyLife: We weren't challenged today, as OSU's offense was borderline non-functional and they played four different QBs. And yet, I still saw some of the same turtling signs that have cost us other games - way too much prevent way too early in the second half, giving up every single 50/50 ball, bad tackling. I guess we got away with it this week, and maybe there's no one other than SMU and maybe Syracuse left on our schedule who could exploit that, but can we just not?
Willis Chong: We looked good. Also, they looked bad. Good score overall, but we can't take too much from this.
Getting passed on at the end of the game was concerning-- I told the people I was watching the game with that I didn't feel comfortable winning despite being up by >30 pts in the 4th quarter until there were triple-zeros. They thought I was insane, but then we got gashed even in a prevent defense. And, we didn't get any pressure on a significantly less mobile QB.
I just feel like if we are going to give up a gift TD at the end of every game, we will lose every future close game, like FSU, Miami, Pitt, and NC State.
BrooklynBear: excellent and really happy to see Barth and Johnson play very well
What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?
Big Dog: Fantastic
Ron: Same as pass defense!
Goldenone: Stout for the most part
AKBear: The replacements for Uluave were terrific. Over 10 combined tackles by the two?
GoldenBear88: Dominant. Helped pitch a shutout in the first half. The Beavs couldn't run the ball at all.
BTown85: Replacing Uluave by committee was awesome and gave us a look at some guys with lots of promise.
TKE.Prytanis 79: Very stout… their RB was a load and tough to bring down
1988goldenbear: Good tackling, not much drop-off with Uluave out... but get better fast Cade!
BlueDuck16: Decent push at the line to limit options for the running back. As usual, our defense is our strength and they do their job well.
BearsWillEndMyLife: The front seven looked great today. OSU has historically gashed us on the ground, and it was nice to see nothing near that. Multiple tackles for loss and only one run given up over 10 yards.
Willis Chong: Again, don't know if we can take anything from this. OSU was already getting stuffed and it
BrooklynBear: great job in the interior to force Hankerson into going left / right
What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?
wiata78: Nice work Special Teams!
Ron: All around excellent. 5 for5 field goals by Morris was just what we, and he, needed!
AKBear: 5 for 5 on FGs is good but can he hit them when it matters. It looked like he was not trying to over smash the ball. In the NC State game, it looked and sounded like he was kicking a 50-yarder and it felt like it went 50 yards to the right. I was sitting in the end zone where he missed the kick. Maybe adrenaline and jitters?
The Ghost of Joe Roth: 5-5 on field goals says it all!
MoochPunt: I loved seeing a kicker go 5/5. The forced fumble and recovery by the kickoff team was great. But what was that lateral on the punt return? OSU wasn’t fooled at all…. I would have rather tried for a safety.
1988goldenbear: 5-for-5?!?! I'll take it. Next test is to see if Morris can make one under pressure. But I'm encouraged. Great kick coverage too.
Bowlesman80: Kicking did not make the difference in this game and, of course it was perfect. Flowers to Special Teams, they were in fire! Wilson is a gem.
BlueDuck16: Did their job well. It was nice to see the kicking team in a position where they had to make up the points our offense couldn’t get in the end zone. Still kicked the ball too much, but we got plenty of touchdowns.
Willis Chong: 5/5 on FGs? FG block? Decent KO coverage when the ball wasn't going through the end zone? I was so shocked when I saw all of this!
I wonder how different our season would be if Morris was our FG kicker before NC State
sacman701: 5 for 5 on field goals!
sacalum: No missed XPs or FGs -- definitely a step in the right direction.
What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?
Old Bear 71: Switched it up. Nice to get far enough ahead and have Cal Not play down to the level of the competition!
Ron: Far, far better than in the last 4 games. Made solid, logical decisions. Hopefully they have turned the page and will continue to call good games.
KJ1980: Got the talent playing to potential against a weak team. Good news!
Calboy76: Fantastic game plan. Half of the Write for California prediction guys had predicted a OSU win. Shame, shame!
MoochPunt: The California coaching staff was not out coached by OSU in this game. Team Wilcox almost out coached themselves with some questionable play calls. But the team looked improved on penalties and missed assignments, so credit where it is due.
GoldenBear88: Bloesch did a good job of creating plays that moved the pocket so Mendoza didn't look like a sitting duck, as opposed to many plays during our losing streak where he just dropped back and got hammered.
1988goldenbear: The team was well-prepared and performed this week. I appreciate that Coach Wilcox has never ever lost the room and the players always back him up. But like the FG kicking, we need to see how they perform under pressure. Coach isn't going anywhere, so I hope he figures it out.
GlueAndBold: Offense stalled in the red zone too often despite the big win. Rogers should very clearly only be the backup now- no bringing him in on the odd play.
BearsWillEndMyLife: Why are we so bad in the red zone? Again, it didn't matter today, but having to settle for five field goals when you have NO DEDICATED SPECIAL TEAMS COACH is not a good overall strategy. We are so reluctant to get vertical in the red zone and take advantage of Nando's arm and our skill position talent. It's not against the rules to ask your offense to do more than just pray your WRs and RBs break a bunch of tackles to get to the end zone. There's no creativity down there.
Willis Chong: Prepared for the game, and get Ott some touches to get the rust off. No super crazy injuries during the game and was able to get the 2s and 3s in to prevent injury.
But, WTF is with the false starts? We kept shooting ourselves with penalties. That's on the coaching staff to clean up. It hasn't been and it's now game 8. That's a bad sign.
sacman701: The team responded to the debacle against the Pack by playing their best game of the year. I suppose the coaches deserve some credit for that.
BrooklynBear: that weird punt return in this game? and we want to see Chandler or CJ try and score in that last possession for a chance @ 50
What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?
Big Dog: Where you been this season?
Ron: Simply fantastic. A wonderful demonstration that we have an excellent team when coached well.
Goldenone: A solid win. Cue up palms of victory
KJ1980: Bears hit on all cylinders today. It felt good to be a Bears fan. I did not wear a paper sack over my head after the game in embarrassment.
The Ghost of Joe Roth: The talent is there. The Bears can finish 8-4 if they play like this every week.
MoochPunt: If only all of our games were out of conference games…. It was fun to watch Thomas and Ott work for the end zone after they probably knew that they were already down. I missed seeing the number 0 all over the field, though our 2nd team linebackers did well enough to keep the overall defensive performance on par with the standard set so far this year.
What has been frustrating this year is that we don’t know which players will be back next year. There is no hoping for next year when these guys on offense and defense show what they can do with the experience gained this year. The transfer portal means that whether we like it or not, next year’s team will be significantly different than this year. So this is the only chance THIS Cal team has to show what they can do. And those 4 close losses leave me wondering what could have been.
Mr. Octetter: This is the real CAL Bears!
1988goldenbear: The Beavers are not a good football team. But it is a positive step to see us play the whole game at a high level and not play down to the opponent. Wake Forest is not good either, but everything feels like a toss-up at this point.
BlueDuck16: Overall, we were fine. I wasn’t exactly impressed with the performance today. I think overall we needed to have a game where we could find our footing again and go into the bye week with confidence. Despite the score, I think our offense has the most to work on these next two weeks because if it wasn’t OSU, I think it would’ve been a tight game. I’m cautiously optimistic for the final games, but not sure any of the future games are safe games. I think everything will be a challenge going forward.
BearsWillEndMyLife: I really do hope this was a true get right game and we are going into SMU with four straight convincing wins and a chance to break Wilcox's record for regular season wins. How insane would it be to turn this around and actually land a 9-win season? If we know Wilcox is not going anywhere, then let's make the most of it.
sacman701: Best effort of the year on both offense and defense. If we can keep playing like that, we should win the next 4 and maybe even upset SMU. Obviously the Beavs aren't up to their usual standards but they aren't a terrible team. They came in averaging over 30 points a game. The ceiling for the rest of the season is higher now with a functional passing attack and kicking game.
Icee_Kingsley: AWESOME. Needed that blowout. Win 2 of 4 for a bowl game. Right?
LifeisPain: A nice "get right" game with some bittersweet notes knowing that our former Pac-12 brethren are drifting into the wilderness. Its unclear if OSU just refused to adjust their gameplan or if our defensive scheme was just as tight as it looked. If its the latter, then I think there's reason to be optimistic about the remaining games after the bye.
Thanks to all who participated! Check back next Friday night to participate in the next edition.
Yeah, while the back ups did commendably and makes me a bit more optimistic that we can give Cade and Teddye some rest, now and again, I missed Cade frenetic and psyched up presence.