With his initial stake of chips dwindling after losing multiple starting hands, Tosh Lupoi and his team will have to go all-in this week in Sin City to ensure that hopes of a season revival are more realistic than a desert mirage.
Standing in their way are the UNLV Rebels, once perennial G6 contenders who have fallen down a peg during Head Coach Dan Mullen’s second campaign. However, they stand to be a formidable road foe for a reeling Cal team. The man in charge of ensuring that the Bears trip to Las Vegas makes a convincing case for a future script of The Hangover Part IV is Paul Guenther. The former NFL coach ran the Raiders defense during their inaugural seasons in Vegas. Though his professional pedigree is impressive, he had no previous FBS coaching experience (words which have caused the streets of Berkeley to shudder in recent weeks). On staff with him is former UNLV DC Mike Scherer, who returns to help jolt a Rebel defense that he coached to a degree of success with back-to-back 10-win seasons. All of which is to say: Cal’s fresh-faced coordinators will be facing off against a well-seasoned coaching staff.
UNLV has the 83rd-ranked defense entering the week. They give up about 150 rushing yards per game and are rated a pedestrian 41.3% Success Rate Allowed. Of particular note are the 44 points that the Rebels gave up to a depleted North Texas team several weeks ago. Though they don’t rank highly on any significant defensive metrics, Cal’s offense has of late made many defenses look far better than they do on paper. Most importantly, Dan Mullen’s squad sports the highest-graded transfer portal class of any G6 program, meaning that the DNA for a stifling defense is there.
Schematically, UNLV runs a multiple 3-3-5 defense, meaning 3 down linemen, 3 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs. This is a style that disguises coverages well and often uses simulated pressure. If Cal is looking to change up the offensive play calling, outside runs, which have been scantly attempted due to poor blocking, might be a nice alteration to make against this look.
The fulcrum of talent is clearly its secondary. Experienced DB play made it extremely difficult for Cal’s passing attack last week, and similar trouble could be awaiting them at Allegiant Stadium. Tre Fulton, Mumu Bin-Wahad, and Jake Pope are returners who headline this group. Tre Fulton in particular has been a standout, with 3 sacks, an interception, a Forced Fumble, and 3 Passes defended. Along the trenches, California native and top 15 EDGE recruit in the state Kal-El Togafau is a redshirt freshman standout who has already notched 2 sacks. Another threat in the box will be Cam Santee, UNLV’s Senior LB and Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week, who has tallied 27 tackles and an INT. Preseason All-Conference DL Lucas Conti has the size to be a force along the interior, and despite not yet lighting up the stat sheet, Kamuela Ka'aihue at LB is a player that fans should look out for.
A glaring vulnerability is that UNLV struggles mightily with missed tackles, racking up 29 of them against North Texas alone. They may get a brief respite from the glaring nature of this issue if Cal RB Adam Mohammed isn’t ready to go, but it could prove to be an unsolved issue which a tune-up game against Akron didn't fix. Additionally, the Rebels’ pass rush is likely to look rather bland compared to UCLA and Clemson, as they don’t have marquee pass rush talent on the level of those programs.
Throwing the ball over the middle, play action, and pre-snap motion need to be further incorporated into the Bears’ pass attack in order to disrupt this defense. Faced with a strong secondary against which Cal receivers may struggle to create by themselves, Jordan Somerville has to force UNLV Linebackers into tough coverage matchups.
For California this weekend, the chips are all in on a desperate hand to save the season. Gone is the safety of preseason plans and calm confidence; it is time to roll the dice, put it all on red, make a wish, and pull the slot lever.
May this be the only time where the house loses in Vegas.
Good post, thanks Yoav. Perhaps we will see an improved Cal offense go up against this defense on Saturday. It could happen, right? Coach says he has made some changes. Hope so. Go Bears!
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