Women's Basketball: A Deeper Look at Turnovers and Assists Statistics
Plus a few fun clips from Sunday's win over Miami
All season long, the Cal Women’s Basketball team has faced issues with excessive turnovers. Cal committed at least 20 turnovers in four of their first eight games. The Golden Beers went 3-1 in those games, with a win over a decent Arizona team and their only loss a close defeat against nationally ranked Michigan State. Early on, it was hard to view turnovers as a fatal flaw for this team.
The high turnover volume continued, especially as they entered conference play and faced elite defensive teams in Notre Dame and Duke. For the season, Cal averaged 17.9 turnovers per game, compared to 15.0 assists per game. This -2.9 ratio per game was the worst in the conference by a wide margin.
In the home win over Boston College on February 13th, Cal turned the ball over 26 times. After the game, I fumbled out a question relating to if turnovers are a consequence of their offensive sets and motion. Coach Charmin Smith was having none of it.
“(turnovers) drive me absolutely crazy….we’re working on it. No one wants to turn the ball over, we’re just struggling right now. We just got to stick with it and work our way out of it. And thank God we were able to get the win even though we gave them lots of opportunities they didn’t deserve.”
Indeed, Cal seemed to have worked their way out of it. Down the stretch, Cal greatly improved on their turnover and assists totals. Let’s look at the numbers;
Cal’s Quad 1 wins were over Alabama, NC State, and Florida State. None of those teams press at a high rate and force an exceptional amount of turnovers. A more meaningful way to look at this is to look at Cal’s games against their fellow ACC teams who are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, and compare how Cal does compared to their opponent’s average
In their three wins, Cal faced average turnover defenses and were better at taking care of the ball than their opponent’s average opposition.
The four losses include Duke, Notre Dame, and Louisville. All three teams are near the top of the national rankings at forcing turnovers. Against these teams, Cal did worse than average.
Cal’s self-inflicted turnovers commonly take the form of inlet passes to Michelle Onyiah that don’t quite connect, or kick-out passes to the shooters that miss their mark. Marta Suarez produces the most turnovers per game amongst the Cal players. Her multi-level offensive game includes dribble penetration and interior motion and post-ups. She sometimes tries to force the actions where she holds onto the ball for too long, or attempts an ill-advised outlet pass. When Cal plays against average pressure defenses, Cal’s offense has limited their mistakes and have come out on top. When facing defenses that thrive on pressure and creating turnovers, Cal has not been up to the task.
Cal has won games where they have turned the ball over 29 times(Auburn). From this point on, Cal will not have the luxury of playing teams where you will not be punished for egregious turnover numbers. I like the ACC comparison as it features a range of teams who are slotted everywhere from 1-to-9 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. It shows that Cal’s path forward will be heavily matchup dependent and that Cal needs to not beat themselves.
If you’re looking for one number….that number is 15.
When Cal has 15 or less turnovers, they tend to win. Cal is 9-2 when having 15 turnovers or fewer. The two losses are their only Quad 2 losses, on the road at Virginia Tech and Clemson.
When Cal has 15 or more assists, they really tend to win. Cal is 15-1 in such games, with their lone loss the nailbiter 3-point defeat at Virginia Tech.
After Sunday’s win over Miami, I asked about the late season improvement in turnover margins (Marta Suarez with an audible “Yay” when I pointed out the improvement) and what has changed. Coach Charmin Smith gave credit to the team;
“That’s them (pointing to Michelle Onyiah and Marta Suarez). We’ve been preaching the same message and it just clicked….the players have really decided to get back to playing how we were earlier, and I’m glad that it happened. This is a team that’s really hard to stop when we move the ball and share the ball the way we’ve been doing it.“
Let’s hope it continues for the next several weeks.
Here’s a few plays from this past Sunday that made me happy, and continue bring me joy on rewatching.
Michelle doing Michelle Things
In the play below, she;
collects the bounce pass from Lulu Twidale
absorbs the contact from the double team without losing her position
goes straight up between the two defenders for the short tough-angled shot
I’m not sure she finishes this play in years past. Nick wrote about this season’s ascendance of Michelle Onyiah. It’s been a joy to watch.
Multi-faceted Marta Suarez
This clip encapsulates the multiple threat player that Marta Suarez is. Watch the action in the upper part of the screen, and follow Marta’s motion throughout the whole play. She starts by calling for the ball in the low post. When the ball is rotated over to Lulu Twidale on the wing, Marta comes out to set a screen. She then rolls to the 3-point line and is ready for the pass. She is patient after collecting the pass to let the defender fly by her before squaring up for the 3-point basket. Nothing but net.
Pick and Roll Execution
One way to improve your assist numbers? Run highly efficient pick and rolls. This is a mini PnR with Lulu and Michelle. My favorite part of this play is Michelle Onyiah’s screen that displaces Miami’s Hannah Cavinder.
Off Ball Movement
Watch Kayla Williams, at the bottom of the screen covered by the score. Kayla stays perfectly parallel with Jayda Noble as Jayda drives, positioning herself for the outlet pass and shot. I appreciate the symmetry of Kayla’s motion with the driving Noble.
The #7 seed Golden Bears plays Thursday at 4pm Pacific time. They will face either the #10 Virginia Cavaliers or the #15 Pitt Panthers, who square off on Wednesday. Cal defeated both teams in their only matchups. The Cavaliers ended the season by upsetting a depleted North Carolina team in Raleigh. On Wednesday, I’ll be rooting for the Panthers.
Another thing I’ve noticed in the past month - we’ve been running a lot of off-ball hammer plays - where a driver (Kayla, Ioanna, Lulu, or Marta) drives to one side of the lane, and either there’s a hammer screen or just inattentive defense, a 3 point shooter on the far side of the court stays open and in the vision of the driver and there’s a whipped pass cross court for an open 3 look for Kayla, Marta, Lulu or Ioanna.
It’s such a fun look - yes it does lead to some turnovers, as a lot of our players love to throw it one hand, off the bounce, but this is a super unselfish team, and I’ll take some unforced turnovers if we continue to look for each other
turnovers have indeed been the bane of our team, and agree that our success will depend on matchups. We do not want to see a high pressure team.
As for the ACC tournament, Virginia is a tough draw. We played very well in the game we beat Virginia, shooting, rebounding and even keeping their PG in relative check
Williams was a key, as was Noble in defending Kymora who nevertheless made play after play
We did shut down Lattimore, but she is dangerous out to the 3 and can score 20 and 10