Women's Hoops; Bears Edge Virginia, Come Up Short in Loss to the Hokies

Recapping the Virginia split, and looking ahead to the last week of the season

Coming into this week’s games sporting a 21-6 (9-5 ACC) record, Coach Smith’s Golden Bears are firmly in the mode of jockeying for position in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. The Bears are solidly in the 6-8 seed range in the ACC standings, which would give them a first round by in the conference tournament and a favorable second round matchup. Two losses this week would have put Cal at risk of slipping into the 9-seed range and having to play tougher matchups. Two wins would put Cal in the discussion for the 5th seed, and would give Cal a 5-4 conference road record in their first year in the ACC. Facing two middle of the pack teams in Virginia and Virginia Tech on their home courts, all outcomes were in play.

Ioanna Krimili, looking at the replay of her potential tying 3-point shot where her foot was just on the line.

Thursday win over Virginia

Michelle Onyiah scored 18 points and pulled down 11 rebounds, and the Splash Sisters made clutch shots in the fourth quarter, as Cal outlasted the Virginia Cavaliers. Trailing 35-30 at the half, Cal started the third quarter with a 17-0 scoring run, and it appeared Cal would cruise to victory. The Cavaliers responded with a 12-0 scoring run to tie the game up at 51-all. The Bears took a 1-point lead into the fourth quarter, 56-55.

Cal’s play in the final period was a microcosm of their season. Playing with 4 fouls, Onyiah scored 7 points. Ioanna Krimili and Lulu Twidale made a combined 3-of-6 made from long range. The Bears had pushed the lead to 7 points with just over three minutes. The Cavaliers battled back, and reduced the lead to 3 after a layup by Kymora Johnson with 40 seconds left. The Bears were patient and executed their offense well, resulting in a good look for Lulu Twidale from the right wing with 15 seconds left. She drained the shot, closing the door on any chance of a last second Cavalier comeback as Cal held on for the 76-70 victory.

Ioanna Krimili scored 18 points, all from 3-point range. Krimili has now made six 3-pointers twenty-seven times in her career, leading the NCAA. She surpassed 2,500 career points. She is the 6th player in NCAA history with over 2,500 points and 400 3-pointers.

Sunday loss vs Virginia Tech

The Virginia Tech Hokies and the Bears have many similarities. Both teams have five experienced starters who average double digits in scoring in conference play. Both teams have an experienced center who is prone to foul trouble. Both teams get minimal input from their benches. While Cal is solidly in the NCAA tournament field, the 16-10 Hokies are on the bubble. In the back-and-forth affair, the Hokies did just a little bit more on offense to earn the win.

The Hokies connect on a higher percentage of 3-pointers than Cal, though they average over 10 fewer attempts per game. Cal’s strategy was to pressure their efficient shooters off the line. The Hokies made them pay. VA Tech’s larger guards frequently drove on Ioanna Krimili and Kayla Williams. With Michelle Onyiah being in foul trouble for most of the game, there was no help defense on the drives. Cal is not supposed to lose games where they shoot 49% overall, 42% from three, and 100% from the free throw line. The Hokies matched their shooting. For the game, Tech shot over 60% from 2-point range (29 of 48). In the frustrating third quarter, Tech shot 12-of-15, and was a perfect 4-of-4 from the free throw line.

Virginia Tech led 66-61 heading into fourth quarter. Cal extends the defense, getting an immediate turnover and layup by Kayla Williams. A 6-0 start gives Cal the 1-point lead, 67-66 three minutes into the quarter. Virginia Tech answered with a 3-pointer from Matilda Ekh, her only long range attempt of the game. Ekh averages 12 points/game, shooting 40% from long range on 5 attempts/game. Today, Ekh led the Hokies in scoring with 19 points, with 16 of those from midrange or on drives and in-close finishes.

The Hokies maintained a small lead through the rest of the quarter. A driving Kayla Williams layup with :49 left cut the lead to one, 81-80 Hokies. The Hokies answered with an inside shot from C Rose Micheaux with :25 left, pushing their lead back to three. After a Cal timeout to advance the ball to the front court, Ioanna Krimili received the inbounds pass and put up a highly-contested 3-point shot that went in….unfortunately review showed that her foot was on the line. Tech maintained the 1-point lead and sunk their free throws. Cal had the ball with :10 left and no timeouts. Lulu Twidale’s 3-pointer at the end was off, and the Hokies held on for the 87-84 win.

Michelle Onyiah played only 13 minutes, scoring 8 points and collecting 3 rebounds in her limited time. All of her fouls today were legitimate calls. Onyiah gets to the right spot on defense, but does not hold her position all the way through the play and either shuffles her feet or swings down on the offensive player. She is also prone to just bulldozing over players to get to her position. Hokies C Rose Micheaux was also hampered by foul trouble, playing only 20 minutes. Marta Suarez took advantage of Micheaux’s absence, scoring 17 of her game-leading 20 points on the interior or at the free throw line. Suarez also collected 10 rebounds for the double-double.

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Cal finished the season with a 4-5 ACC road record. Today’s close loss was the best they have done on the road against an above average conference opponent. The Bears’ other 4 road losses were by an average of over 22 points.

These games did not show us anything new about this team. They are lethal from outside, and when Onyiah can play extended minutes, the inside-outside game is good enough for Cal to compete with anyone. Marta Suarez is a dual threat who is capable of playing on the inside when Onyiah is not available. She also has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long when she gets in close, and turns the ball over too often (5 turnovers today).

For as good as Cal’s trio of guards are, they are also slightly undersized. Against larger guard lineups like Duke and Virginia Tech, this turns into a definite defensive weakness.

Cal is overly reliant on their starters. Ioanna Krimili played 40 minutes today, and Marta Suarez and Lulu Twidale each played 38. Jayda Noble played 23 minutes in relief of Onyiah. She played solid defense and had a crucial offensive rebound and basket in the last 2 minutes to keep Cal close.

The most positive note of the weekend; Cal continues to reduce their turnovers. Coming into this week, Cal was averaging a league worst 18 turnovers/game. The last three games have shown a noticeable improvement.

This week’s games are by far the best two game stretch of ball handling the Bears have had this year.

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In the 18-team ACC Conference, the bracket for the conference tournament is;

• Teams 16-18 do not participate

• Round 1: Seeds 10/11/12 play against seeds 15/14/13.

• Round 2: Seed 8 plays against seed 9. Seed 5/6/7 play against the winners from round 1.

• Round 3: Seeds 1-4 play against the winners of round 2.

• Round 4 & 5: Semifinals and final.

There is a large difference between seeds 7 and 8;

• Seed 7 plays either seed 10 or 15, who faced each other the previous day.

• Seed 8 plays against seed 9. This will be the first game for both teams.

More importantly, the 8/9 seed would play world-killer Notre Dame in round 3. Cal has already beaten #2 seed North Carolina State, so would prefer the 7 seed.

Cal concludes the regular season this week with a pair of intriguing games at Haas Pavilion against current #8 seed Georgia Tech and #13 Miami. Here are the current 4th-9th place standings

The conference seeding tiebreakers state that if two teams are tied, head-to-head record will be used. If three teams or more are tied, overall win/Loss percentage against everyone else in the ties will be used. Of the teams above Cal;

• Louisville finishes with Clemson and Notre Dame(likely 1-1)

• Florida State finishes the season playing Notre Dame and Duke(likely 0-2)

• Duke finishes with North Carolina and Florida St (likely 1-1)

If Cal Goes 2-0

The game against Georgia Tech on Thursday is huge. A Cal win would secure no worse than the 7th seed as Cal would be two games up on the Yellow Jackets. Just as important, it is another chance for Cal to earn a Quad 1 win and improve their NCAA tournament profile.

The absolute highest tiebreaking scenario would be for Cal to win both games and tie for 5th-7th place at 12-6 with Florida St and Louisville(Duke finishes 13-5). Louisville would get the #5 seed due to beating both Cal and Florida State. Cal would get the #6 seed due to their win over the Seminoles. Outcome: Cal #6 seed.

The more reasonable scenario is the ‘likely’ outcome from the above bullet list. If those scenarios play out, Cal and Florida State would tie for 6/7, with Cal having the tiebreaker edge due to their early January victory. Outcome: Cal #6 seed

If Duke goes 0-2 and ends up at 6/7 with Cal, Duke earns the higher seed due to their win earlier this month. Outcome: Cal #7 seed

If Cal beats Georgia Tech, loses to Miami

Cal gets the #7 seed. No other outcome possible.

If Cal loses to Georgia Tech, beats Miami

Cal becomes Stanford fans for one day, and hopes that the Cardinal beats Georgia Tech on Sunday. Cal would get the #7 seed and avoids slipping to #8 where they would most likely face #9 Virginia Tech.

If Cal loses both games

Cal ends 10-8 in conference. Cal finishes #8 or #9 and playing #9 or #8 Virginia Tech in Round 2.

Avoiding the 8/9 seed is critical in order to avoid Notre Dame as long as possible.

All of this points to how huge Thursday’s game is against Georgia Tech. Today, Tech suffered a home upset loss to Florida State after being dominated at home on Thursday by NC State. They will be looking to bounce back and move up to the #7 seed (the highest they can go).

Like Cal, Georgia Tech is led by a trio of excellent guards. Junior Kara Dunn averages 16 points and 6 rebounds per game. They are very careful with the ball, leading the conference in assists and leading the conference in assist/turnover ratio by a wide margin at 1.50. They are second in the conference in 3-point field goal defense, holding their opponents to 29% long range shooting. Cal and Tech are virtually tied in rebounding margin. Georgia Tech is 4-3 on the road in the ACC this year, highlighted by a win at UNC to open conference play in mid-December.

Cal has a definite size advantage on the inside. Tech frequently plays a 5-guard lineup with no one over 6’ 1”. This will be a game where Michelle Onyiah has a chance to dominate. Cal will have to continue to limit their turnovers, and mix up their defensive looks in an attempt to make the Tech guard uncomfortable.

Of course, us Cal fans can also make it uncomfortable on Georgia Tech. These are the last game of the year, by far the best season under Coach Charmin Smith. I encourage you to show up loud and proud at Haas this Thursday, and to paraphrase Coach Smith, “bring a freakin’ friend.”