A couple weeks ago I asked you all to peer into the future and predict what was going to unfold in Tosh’s first season at the helm of Cal football. Over 150 of you weighed in, and the results are the most optimistic predictions we have seen in years. Despite being stuck between 6 and 7 wins in recent years, the team is set for an impressive improvement if our predictions match reality (which they usually are, although the fanbase overrated the Bears by 1 win in 2025 and 2024). First, let’s review the key highlights of the results:
Likely wins: Wagner (96.9%), Leland Stanford Junior University (83.8%)
Our FCS game is always the highest-rated chance of a win, but the fanbase is quite optimistic about avenging last year’s miserable, 31-10 Big Game loss. LSJU is not particularly highly rated this season (61 in SP+ rankings, one spot behind our Sturdy Golden Bears), so they should be one of the likelier wins this season. But 84% may be a bit generous…
Lean Cal: UCLA (68.2%), at Syracuse (67.5%), at UNLV (64.7%), Virginia Tech (61.7%), Wake Forest (73.3%), Pitt (69.3%)
Half the schedule falls into the category of games that Cal should win, although a loss is not entirely unlikely. Based on these win probabilities, Cal should win about 4 of these. Add that to the likely wins and we’re already at bowl eligibility!
Toss-ups: Clemson (52.3%), at SMU (41.1%), at NC State (55.7%), at Virginia (51.7%)
Now things get particularly interesting, especially because the latter three occur in a critical three-game stretch late in the season. SMU should pose the toughest threat to Miami’s ACC title hopes this season, with Clemson and Virginia hoping to sneak into the title game. NC State’s hopes may have dimmed considerably after being destroyed by Beau Pribula and Virginia on Saturday. With four coin-flip games, we should expect two wins here. Add that to the previous six and Cal goes 8-4 for the first time since 2009.
Likely Losses: None(!)
Nothing fell below the 40% mark this season!
Here are the game-by-game results, where the Win Chance represents the average prediction and the Standard Deviation shows how much uncertainty there is around that prediction.
Add up all those win probabilities and we get a projected total of 7.86 wins, our highest preseason projection since we started this series in 2011.
The following boxplots show the distribution of those predictions. The box captures data between the 25th and 75th percentiles, and the horizontal line represents the median, or midpoint of the data.
We favor the Bears in every game except SMU. Not all those favored games will turn into victories (or maybe they will!), but that is nevertheless a remarkable outcome.
Simulating the Season
To see how likely each possible outcome is this season, I used the predictions to simulate the season one million times. The simulation process is simple: I draw one prediction at random for the UCLA game, use that to draw a win or a loss (e.g. if I select a 65%, then Cal has a 65% chance of drawing a win and a 35% chance of drawing a loss). I then move on to the next game and repeat the process. After all twelve games I tally the total number of wins, and then start the process over.
Eight wins is the most likely outcome, but you already knew that. The following plot shows how likely each record is after each game (e.g. 0-1 vs. 1-0 after UCLA, and 0-2 vs. 1-1 vs. 2-0 after Wagner). Larger numbers and darker squares indicate more likely outcomes. This approach is helpful for tracing the likelihood of various win-loss outcomes after each game.
There are some remarkable potential outcomes in there: 15% chance of starting the season 5-0, 15% chance of being 8-2 heading into Big Game, and an 11% chance of a 10-2 season. Based on these predictions we have a 25% chance of ending the season with an 8-4 record. At 21% and 20%, respectively, records of 7-5 and 9-3 are not too farfetched. Nevertheless, optimism abounds heading into 2026.
Awards
Onward to our usual slate of awards, recognizing grades that were the most optimistic, most pessimistic, and most closely aligned to our community predictions.
Sunshine Pumpers
First, the most optimistic.
Three-way tie for first!
Old Blues
Next, this most pessimistic.
Only three of the 150+ submissions envision fewer than six wins—clearly it’s bowl or bust for the the team this season.
The Voice of Reason
Next, those whose grades were closest to the group across all twelve games.
Thanks to all who participated, and Go Bears!
I just want to remind everyone - these group think predictions have been remarkably accurate over the years.
In spite of everything...at this point, Cal is a slight underdog on Sat..
....Not saying anything earthshaking but it's huge for Cal to win this one. ..
..."came close"or "put up a good fight" is not something Cal needs at this point.
....terrific that this test is coming so soon.