Justin Wilcox is likely back in 2025. Why Cal fans must continue to support the program

Our future depends on it.

A year and a week ago, after Cal had fallen to 3-4, I wrote this piece:

Despite all that, I’d be shocked if Justin Wilcox ISN’T the Cal coach in 2024.

Why? Money!

With the new, deeply disadvantageous ACC deal, Cal is going to already be short on the TV revenue needed to maintain a fully functional athletic department. To pay what amounts to around a $20 million buyout (approximately what Wilcox is owed this year if dismissed), and then go around and pay a new coach likely a similar amount doesn’t seem financially feasible this year, and maybe not even next year.

Additionally, major Cal donors are very unwilling to really make any major commitments to a new direction as long as athletic director Jim Knowlton is the one who will have to make the call. Knowlton was not forthcoming in the Cal men’s basketball search with his donor class, and even though Mark Madsen is looking like a promising hire, it’s likely that Mike Montgomery’s input was crucial to getting this done.

While you’d expect numerous Cal luminaries to weigh in this time around for football, trusting the man who handed Wilcox two bizarre extensions and put us in this precarious situations to nail another hire is asking a lot.

So Knowlton will have to be gone before any decision can be made. Perhaps the investigation of the Cal athletic director about his role in Teri McKeever’s misconduct can help accelerate that process, but given it took nearly a year of investigating to send McKeever packing, who knows when that wraps up.

A year later, nearly nothing has changed.

• Cal is at 3-4, with a more disastrous momentum-killing losing streak to its name. The Bears are in last place in the ACC, and out of first place by a grand nine points. But four one-score losses are no different from four 20 point losses. 0-4.

• The buyout has dropped for Justin Wilcox, who is not a popular figure right now, but it’s now sitting at a still very unpalatable $15 million.

• The decreased ACC revenue, plus increased operating costs from travel and logistics have greatly reduced the financial support they will need to keep things humming.

• Most frustratingly, Jim Knowlton is still proudly and publicly the athletic director. I see him at some point at every game!

However, some new factors have also emerged:

• Additional looming issues like the House NIL settlement, which mandates a $20+ million cap for athlete spending. In this tough financial environment, Cal Athletics is going to have to dig deep to find that money for its players, or figure out how to synergize with our very successful NIL Collective.

• Handling an unruly California state legislature that doesn’t quite understand the new realities, or particularly care about the future of Cal Athletics, and tried to pass a disastrous 50-50 gender NIL split that would have destroyed the program as we know it. (Gavin Newsom did eventually veto SB 906, but our state government is likely not done).

To put it simply, the university and the athletic department have very difficult financial decisions ahead and political battles to fight that make paying a buyout of that size unpalatable, barring a complete season collapse that empties out Memorial Stadium in 2025, regardless of how easy the schedule looks.

I’ve also gone over the Knowlton situation plenty. My words above haven’t changed—major donors do not want him as part of this process. Handing Wilcox a nearly fully guaranteed extension after going 5-7 has crippled this program’s decision-making.

So as long as he is here, despite all the tough close losses that have taken us out of contention for anything of significance, again, Justin Wilcox is likely our head coach in 2025. There will likely be a small bridge extension to give him the four year buffer that most coaches enjoy for recruiting. Perhaps there can be a reworking of the buyout, with financial incentives tied into hard performance metrics.

But Wilcox will almost certainly be back. Cal fans must grapple with that reality, and accept it as soon as possible.

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Now here is the major challenge I must issue, despite this very hard cold fact:

Cal fans cannot just check out.

Yes, in normal times, this is what any fanbase would do, and what Cal fans would do during most Wilcox seasons. They’d sell off their tickets, they’d make other Saturday plans, they’d see us again next year.

We cannot do it this time. The perception that Cal doesn’t care about football nearly killed us a year ago. Heading down that path, again, would be our end.

Here are some ways to support:

• Donate to NIL. The College GameDay campaign from the Cal Legends NIL Collective raised $2.5 million for the football program, and had additional benefits to other programs as well! With all the financial hurdles above, any support that goes straight to the players and future players will help mitigate any issues with recruiting and the transfer portal. Regardless of the coach, Cal must have talent in the hall to avoid a total overhaul. If you have the means, chip in.

• Go to games, or find someone who will go to games: Cal needs revenue in every way possible. Ticket sales are the best way to get funds in. Filling those seats would be great too, so if you just want to support with revenue but also want to contribute to a rollicking home environment, please gift your tickets to anyone who wants to go.

• Turn your TV sets on. If you can’t go to games, this is the least you can do. Our TV viewership numbers are drawing much better in the ACC. Cal is in the middle of the pack, which is a huge reason why ESPN keeps putting us on TV. Cal was not seen as a huge TV draw in the Pac-12 due to decreased viewership. Changing that narrative will raise the eyebrows of TV executives when the next round of realignment happens.

• Build communities. Activate your law school alumni class, your Unit 2 groupchats, your Greek sorority sisters, do get-togethers that bring everyone back to Berkeley or on road trips! Games can be exhausting alone, but can still be plenty fun together regardless of the result. Let football be your social lubricant.

• Organize watch parties. Talk to your local Cal friends. There are countless Cal fans in the Bay Area and plenty of bars willing to host a large group of Bears, and I’m sure this holds true in most major cities. A watch party only needs two people, and then with more outreach it can catch on.

• Join the Calgorithm. Winning the culture was a crucial part of getting College GameDay. It takes little effort to start a social media account and get connected with the larger ecosystem. You’re Cal fans! Show off your creative humor!

• Create culture. One small example: Write For California teamed up with Warriors World to get this awesome Marshawn/Oski merch out to the people (only a few days left to order!). This will increase our branding as well as raise funds for Berkeley Basic Needs to help Cal students in need. Think of other ways you can help contribute!

• Let’s find your place. I created this Google Form to start to connect with everyone of you, and am overwhelmed with the response. You are out there and I see you. Please fill it out if you are interested in helping out and just are looking for some way to help. I will reach out to all of you in the coming weeks and months with more concrete plans of action.

Trust me. I do not like being the pom pom man. I want to talk about football, about 3-4 alignments, about game theory, about game experience, about our fan culture. I want to have normal problems that a normal football team experiences.

But Berkeley life is never normal.

Cal is either going to be fully in or totally out in a few years. We need to show everyone our community is in it for the long haul. Surviving is our first and final goal. If we do that, then we can start really having fun again, like we did on GameDay.

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In most scenarios, based on the remaining schedule, and the fact that many donors really only care about beating Stanford, Cal still has the wiggle room to turn it around and still make a bowl. It’ll be a disappointing season that won’t leave many people happy, but in most cases, it’ll be more than enough for Justin Wilcox to survive.

Most of us might not like it. Some of us might find it exhausting. But there really is no way forward.

Cal needs support from us now, tomorrow, and for a long time to come.

This is endgame, and I’m not at all interested in waiting for a final snap.