Cal faces relegation as Big Ten targets Oregon, Washington, Big 12 wants Arizona, ASU, Utah

Doomsday for the California Golden Bears as a major program could be on us.

Photo via from_dawn_2_dusk at UC Berkeley

The Pac-12 extinction event is upon us. And it’s looking more and more as if the California Golden Bears will be just sticking around as it all burns around them.

A quick summary of updates from around what’s left of the Pac-12.

There were rumors yesterday that Cal and Stanford were explored as possibilities for expansion along with Oregon and Washington to join the Big Ten, likely at a reduced rate than USC and UCLA to appease broadcast carriers running short on cash.

Those lifeline hopes appear to have been dashed today, as only Oregon and Washington were deemed palatable by the media rights holders of the Big Ten (FOX, NBC, CBS) at this time. The Big Ten authorized their commission to explore expansion, but the priority is Oregon and Washington. Due diligence has already been taken out on the two schools in the past year.

While university presidents are interested in the thought of adding the two most academically prestigious colleges playing Power 5 football, money counters are looking only at the bottom line. The most optimistic tone you can take from today is Fox/NBC/CBS have likely determined that adding Cal and Stanford (both with diminished football programs at this time) at the same rate as Washington (top-25 fixture) and Oregon (top 25 media ratings darling) is not palatable. Thus, they’re waiting to offer Cal and Stanford an even lower rate than the one Oregon and Washington are getting.

From the Big 12 side, Cal and Stanford have already indicated across many channels they have no interest in joining, likely due to a mix of academic elitism and cultural mismatch. So the efforts have instead been focused on other Pac-12 members, particularly Arizona, Arizona State and Utah.

The rumor mill seems to be indicating the following order of events:

• Arizona is locked and ready to join the Big 12.

• Arizona State was hesitant due to a longstanding loyalty to the Pac-12, but seems to have reversed course and seems to be leaning toward joining their Arizona rivals in the race out of the conference.

• Utah has had similar reservations about the Big 12, but the lack of a proper Pac-12 deal has led to similar consternation and likely acceptance of a Big 12 deal too.

• Oregon is deliberating between a reduced Big Ten deal, maybe looking into a full Big 12 deal, and returning to the Pac-12 and trying to run roughshod.

• If Oregon accepts the Big Ten invite, Washington and Oregon will accept together and Utah will certaintly take the final spot in a Big 12 invite.

• If Oregon picks the Big 12, it’s likely the Big Ten doesn’t expand, and Utah and Washington are both left in a diminished Pac-12.

• If Oregon returns to the Pac-12, so does Washington, and what remains of the conference likely seeks out a few G5 programs like San Diego State, SMU and others to stop the bleeding.

• If all or most of the above programs leave, a merger with the best Mountain West Conference programs becomes top priority.

Board meetings are happening with the university regents at nearly every one of the above five institutions in the coming hours and days.

So in the realignment battles, Cal and Stanford are marooned on the same boat with poor Washington State and Oregon State, watching the dominoes fall around them.

For Stanford, it’d be a pretty tough blow, but they are one of the schools that go fully independent, go to a lower conference, integrate their non-revenue sports into local conferences, likely keep playing Cal and a few Pac-12 schools, Notre Dame, and some other marquee opponents since they are extremely cash positive.

For Cal, it’s a death spiral. If left behind. in what’s left of the tatters of the Pac, they will have to cut back heavily in every sport at every capacity. The proposed Pac-12 deal will do nothing but diminish or vanish entirely without Oregon or Washington. And they still have tons of debt they have yet to pay off from the Memorial Stadium upgrade/SAHPC reconstruction. Even if Cal does get a Big Ten deal at some point in the foreseeable future, the damage caused in the intermediate moments will be so difficult to recover from for years.

It should never have gotten to this point. If Cal had competent leadership of any sort, we'd have easily found a home in the next stage of realignment, even if it wasn't our first destination.

But decades of elitism, snobbery, indifference and incompetence might be coming home to roost this week.