Pac-12 getting a lifeline with ACC Network, ESPN+. Will it stop Big Ten, Big 12 exploration?

The Worldwide Leader is probably looking to strike back against the most recent incursions by Fox and its Big Ten expansion plans.

Awful Announcing @awfulannouncing

Pac-12, ACC reportedly talking about broadcast alliance that would shift Pac-12 Networks content to ACC Network dlvr.it/STT5tk

As the Pac-12 kicks off a very normal set of circumstances for its TV deal, the ACC, likely backed by ESPN, has stepped in to try and provide a scenario where both conferences can stay afloat as the Big Ten and SEC soar upward in the arms race.

The ACC and Pac-12 are reportedly engaged in lengthy talks to work out a TV deal. This is likely backed by ESPN, who are probably smarting at the move Fox just made to upend the college football TV arms race. ESPN wants to maintain top dog status in this race—behind the NBA and NFL, live college sports is their moneymaker. There’s no way they want to let it all go.

The Pac-12 programs are probably recognizing the Big Ten is happy to stand pat for now and the Big 12’s hand might not be strong enough, so why not hold the line for the moment and keep options open?

The how

In short, the proposal is likely as follows (via Ross Dellenger and Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated):

• The ACC Network (completely owned and operated by ESPN) would split up its regional distribution so that ACC games would be viewed through most of the country, while the Pac-12 games.

• The ESPN family of networks would likely take on the remaining inventory, most likely during the dreaded Pac-12 After Dark time slot for the bulk of the remaining games. I’d imagine the ACC Network would also distribute a national game during that time period.

• A sample schedule would go something like:

  • 12:30 PM Pacific: Pac-12 game on ACC Network (West Coast only)

  • 4 PM Pacific: Pac-12 game on ACC Network (West Coast only)

  • 7-8 PM Pacific: Pac-12 games on ACC Network, ESPN, ESPN2 (national)

  • Non-conference weeks would get a bit complex and could require a lot of ESPN+ streaming for non-major games.

  • There would likely be some provisions made for a top Pac matchup for conference rights for an ABC primetime slot/ESPN afternoon game.

• The Pac-12 Network will likely shutter, where most of the football/basketball games would end up in the ACC Network or ESPN+. Ditto Olympic sports, with a tilt toward ESPN+.

• This would also likely save the Rose Bowl for at least a few more years. The Rose Bowl remains ESPN’s most valuable college football postseason game from a ratings perspective outside the College Football Playoff. Although you’d have to guess some concessions would have to be made to the ACC if this proposal were to go through, particularly for an ACC/Pac-12 title winner in Vegas.

The caveats

I won’t lie. This is still very complicated.

ESPN and Fox are engaging in cold war where they appear unwilling to work together on any future TV deals. If the Pac-12 were to pair with the ACC, that means it’s unlikely Fox or Fox Sports 1 will cover any of the games, depriving the conference of vital time slots.

Keep in mind the entire SEC schedule is going to ESPN in 2024 and ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, etc. figure to eat up the bulk of their best time slots. The Pac is almost certainly relegating itself to late night status, or another host of Thursday/Friday night national contests to even out the losses.

Without Fox or the Pac-12 Network, the final TV deal that’d be negotiated would put the remaining Pac schools in a likely weaker position than their ACC counterparts. Revenue sharing will need to be ironed out in a favorable way that satisfies many a dissatisfied program at this time.

Even if all those logistics, I’m skeptical of the long-term success of any such deal, even if all the complexities are worked out. It is no secret the SEC would like to keep expanding with big brands (Clemson, Florida State, Miami are all attractive targets) and the Big Ten would probably want to keep their footprint growing with big markets that are a fit (Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Boston College). Oregon and Washington will also have a wandering eye, awaiting the Notre Dame/Big Ten decision and the dominoes that will subsequently fall. And who knows how the four corner programs will feel about the Big 12, given enough time and contemplation.

However, the ACC Grant of Rights locks most of the east coast schools in-conference until 2036. And a new Pac-12 (should we start calling it Pac-10 again?) deal would likely try and lock those schools in for about the same period. If it did come to pass, it would provide programs enough breathing room to keep afloat before Mad Max comes for all of what remains next decade.

The Cal

So, does it benefit Cal?

I think it benefits Cal in one big way: It provides them time.

Cal clearly does not want to be in the Big 12. The religious school issue has come up constantly with Baylor and would definitely come up with TCU and BYU. They have not been involved in any discussions as far as we know.

If the Big Ten had thought Cal was a worthwhile candidate in this round of talks, the invite likely comes along as a package of all the California schools. This should buy the Bears time to make their case with all the proper due diligence done for realignment.

What we should all be worried about is complacency. Cal cannot feel comfortable with any sort of ACC/Pac-12 partnership as the solve for all their problems. It will not be enough to handle their debt, it will force them to continue to rely on central campus for relieving that debt, and could force the athletics department into difficult decisions regarding non-revenue sports. All of that is still on the table given we’re triaging rather than expanding. Getting into the Big Ten remains option number one.

We live in interesting times. Wish they’d get boring soon.