The Cal men's basketball exodus is not the end of the world

A brief missive on why the California Golden Bears have been losing a lot of talent, and what's to be done next.

Photo credit: Rob Hwang

Why is everyone leaving?

There is plenty of speculation about why the majority of the returning Cal men’s basketball players are seeking new opportunities (Jalen Celestine, Rodney Brown Jr., Devin Askew, Grant Newell, ND Okafor, Monty Bowser are all in the transfer portal). I can’t really weigh into the speculation, but I do want to offer my opinions.

There are a few factors that I believe are potentially significant.

Culture reset: Nearly all the players who entered the portal were remnants from the old Mark Fox regime. When Mark Madsen took over and brought his transfers in, they took the large portion of the playing time away from these contributors. There is one notable exception in Jalen Celestine, but nearly all the departing talent saw a reduction in playing time. With Madsen looking for new portal players again, there might be some concern from the outgoing players that they will not be prioritized.

NIL misalignment: While we don’t have figures, the players that Madsen brought into Cal last year from the portal did come at the onset of the onslaught of NIL deals. Also, Fox was not a big believer in NIL. So there were likely huge disparities between how much the new starters from the Madsen era and Fox players were receiving. That might have caused friction.

Resource allocation. While I’m sure Cal would have wanted Celestine, Rodney Brown Jr., and a few others back, it’s quite possible their asking price was too high relative to their actual on-court production. Many NIL Collectives are (correctly or incorrectly) throwing out ridiculous figures in order to entice portal prospects to move. And at that point, it becomes a matter of deciding whether those resources could be better spent elsewhere.

These losses are tough, but manageable, if the Bears can find players of similar talent and allocate their NIL funds effectively.

This is the new way of the world

While Cal is encountering losses, the Bears are not the only one out west who has seen turnover. Stanford saw four of their starters depart after the firing of Jerod Haase. Virginia Tech saw seven players enter the portal. The state of Rhode Island has seen their universities turn over 20% of their rosters. While Cal is on the extreme end of things, they are not alone in seeing the portal blow up their world.

With transfer restrictions being blown up every day in federal court, there is now plenty of reason for players in uncertain situations to test the waters. It would not be a surprise at all if a few Cal players decided to come back.

It does provide an opportunity as well to start fresh. Cal might have many players out there moving around, but at the same you have a host of talents from 300+ schools on their way in. Mark Madsen and the coaching staff have been hard at work looking for these talents (we discussed point guards last week, and we have another post coming on wings this week).

Frankly, these first few years were always going to be chaotic. Cal men’s basketball won three games last year. It was barely a program worth paying attention to in the previous five years. There was going to be a full system reboot required to get the program back to its old stomping grounds.

Replacing an entire rotation over the next month is not going to be easy. Cal has plenty of work ahead of them. But this is the right coaching staff who can manage a reboot. And thankfully there are ways fans can assist in those efforts.

How can Cal fans help?

The first, second, and third way Cal fans can help is to donate to NIL. The Cal coaching staff cannot directly discuss NIL, so you will never hear directly from them on it. But just like with football, the priority from inside the house is funding the collective to get top players the proper dues they need to feel secure enough to be a Golden Bear.

If you have any athletic donations going anywhere else, I highly recommend redirecting those funds to your sport of choice. Regardless of how slowly the university is moving here, this is the where the needle is being moved. If your priority is seeing a winning Cal basketball program and ensuring Mark Madsen stays happy in Berkeley for a long while, it’s important for fans to chip in and make their mark.

It’s going to be a rocky few weeks as the Bears rebuild their 2025 roster, but with so many fewer spots in hoops, the Cal fan impact can go a long way.