Cal football midterm grades: Some improvement, some regression, similar results

The California Golden Bears are about where we expected them to be, to the surprise of almost no one.

Photo credit: Rob Hwang

Running offense

Cal has not run with any consistency for much of the Justin Wilcox era. Thankfully, our offensive makeover has gotten us back to basics.

Halfway through 2023, Cal has more rushing yards this season (1302) than all of last season (1159).

Cal has gone from 97 rushing yards per game in 2022 (122nd in FBS) to 217 this year (11th).

Cal has improved from 3.6 yards per rush in 2022 (99th) to 5.1 this year (24th).

Jaydn Ott (556 yards) and Isaiah Ifanse (348) have kept the Cal offense moving with a bit more consistency. Mike Bloesch has really improved what’s happening up here. Things are noticeably better, mostly thanks to the interior efforts from Brian Driscoll and Sioape Vatikani. Transfers like Barrett Miller and Matthew Wykoff have helped shore up depth. Bastian Swinney is coming into his own.

It isn’t all peachy. If Cal’s passing game is really struggling, this run game can get locked up. The Bears line is performing better, but the talent level is still pretty thin. Injuries to Matthew Cindric and potentially Vatikani could hamper that style.

Cal’s remaining fortunes hinge on this group performing at a high level.

Grade: B

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Passing offense

Now, full disclaimer, this grade is a bit nicer, because I don’t think any of us came into this season expecting outstanding quarterback play. Cal had a very inexperienced QB room this year, and we all knew it wouldn’t be easy.

But the quarterback carousel has defined these 2023 California Golden Bears. Ben Finley’s backup performance against a hapless North Texas defense is the highlight so far, with Fernando Mendoza’s Oregon State game a promising bellweather of things to come.

In between have been four very tough performances from Sam Jackson and Finley. There’s been one benching, two switches due to an injury, and an FCS comeback. Sam’s complete game performance against Arizona State was very tough. Jackson is raw and might develop in time, but there are times where he is struggling with the fundamentals. And Finley just struggles against top-level competition—the early mistakes against Washington and the checkdowns against Auburn set the tone for each defeat.

Jeremiah Hunter has been a season-long highlight, with Taj Davis and Jack Endries being pleasant surprises. But this QB musical chairs act hasn’t really panned out. They haven’t been helped by an offensive line that is still struggling to pass protect, or receivers that are struggling to gain separation. That being said, if the quarterback play was better, it’s likely defenses would be less comfortable to rush heavy or man up our receivers.

Perhaps Mendoza changes this equation, but Oregon State is still too small a sample size to judge whether he can be the guy. Let’s check back in here after USC and Utah.

Grade: C-

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Run defense

Cal’s interior front remains as consistent as ever.

The depth up front of the defensive line, marked by the return of BRETT JOHNSON and the emergence of Ricky Correia, has made it easier for the linebackers to plunge and make huge tackles. Jackson Sirmon and Kaleb Elarms-Orr have done their job to fill in gaps. Xavier Carlton and Myles Jernigan have been the outside presences.

Still, there’s room for improvement. The Bears haven’t had much luck in short yardage or goal-line situations, surrendering a host of first downs and touchdowns. And better teams with good line play have run on Cal, opening things up for the passing game to feast.

That being said, this is by far the better of the two major elements of Cal’s declining defense. If Cal can keep fresh bodies up front, there will be at least one steady hand that can stabilize what’s happening behind them.

Grade: B-

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Pass defense

The days of the Takers appear to be way behind us.

After a decent start in non-conference play, peaking against Auburn, Cal’s pass rush has completely vanished, generating zero sacks off the edge in conference play. All blitzes have been swallowed up and the Bears are not producing the pressure needed to make any of the opposing quarterbacks sweat.

That has made life infinitely easier for the already formidable stack of Pac-12 offenses the Bears have had to face this year. The warning signs were in the Idaho game, and now they’re blaring alarms like the Berkeley Emergency Sirens.

Quarterbacks have been able to quick pass Cal to death, but more worryingly go deep into their drops and air it out. Michael Pennix Jr. is expected. DJ Uiagalelei, less so. And definitely not Trenton Bourguet. There have been individual standouts like Patrick McMorris and Nohl Williams, but something is missing from the collective unit, whether it be footspeed or scheme discipline.

There might be a bounty of offensive play-callers in this conference, but getting outschemed game after game on this level is unacceptable for a team that prides itself on its defense. There is simply no way for Cal to score an upset if the Bears can’t protect the back end.

Grade: D+ (and dropping)

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Special teams

Where to begin.

The outstanding punting of Lachlan Wilson is the one saving grace from one of the most abysmal unit performances in the modern era of Cal football. Every Cal loss this season has been special teams assisted, swinging games by double digits (nothing probably saves the Washington game, but it certainly didn’t help).

There were the horrifying night of field goal kicks in a winnable Auburn game. There’s the collapse of the kickoff coverage game the last two weeks that put ASU in doubt and allowed Oregon State to pull away.

And Cal doesn’t even attempt to return kicks because the blocking is that questionable. Our offense is not a 75-yard touchdown drive machine. This impedes our ability to get better field position.

I’ve seen a rough special teams performance from every Cal team in my life. To see this level of sadness week-to-week in this unit is unprecedented, and a huge reason why Cal is trudging in the bottom third of the conference instead of aiming higher.

Grade: D-

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Coaching (Big Picture):

I’ll do a deeper dive in a future post, but let’s go over the headwinds.

Strategically, things are going better. The NIL did allow the Bears to capture a top 25 portal class, and some of those players (Isaiah Ifanse, Patrick McMorris, Nohl Williams, etc.) have proven to be huge adds. Cal from a talent perspective is way better off than they were a year ago.

But it lacked the gamechangers at positions of need like offensive line, rush back and quarterback. All indications are that the NIL programs weren’t set up in time for the Bears to fully capitalize and get top targets in 2023—it was set up in time for Mark Madsen to land a good class of his own. The fall fundraising campaign is a good sign that there is much untapped potential here.

If things don’t work this offseason with a far more established NIL, then it’s time to admit that something isn’t quite right.

Additionally, recruiting is really struggling. With program momentum at best in neutral, there isn’t much being sold at the moment regarding Cal locally. There is work to do.

Still, I think Cal is trending in the right direction here. Embracing the portal and NIL is the way to quickly rebooting the program. We will see how the ACC move impacts all of this, but we have to keep this momentum going.

Grade: C+

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Coaching (Gameday):

The Bears are prepared, they fight hard, they play to the whistle, and there is never any quit in them at any point of the game.

But the quarterback situation has put Cal behind the eight ball to begin with. Rotating three quarterbacks in six games and putting up decent numbers is an accomplishment, but the lows have been low, and costly. To his credit, Jake Spavital played all the quarterbacks to find his man. To his detriment, it took half the season to find the likely starter.

The defense has disappointed at a time when all signs were that this unit would be far more impressive than its previous incarnations. Through three games, in conference play, Peter Sirmon has had no answer for the bevy of playmakers and quarterbacks he has to scheme against. For the first time, much of the defensive coaching staff has to be a bit worried about their future.

And it’s time to admit defeat on the “no dedicated special teams coach” front this offseason. This season has borne out the need for a dedicated commander of that unit.

Most of the coaching process has had merit behind it, but the results have been lamentable. And this is an outcomes business.

Grade: C-

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Conclusions:

There is a lot of talk about the Bears being better in every Justin Wilcox press conference. And yet, every week since the opener, a very flawed Golden Bears team comes out, plays flawed, and either ends up in a dogfight or gets blasted.

The coaches have to adapt. Wilcox turned a teetering 3-3 Golden Bears team in 2018 into a defensive monster. He also saw a 3-3 2022 Cal team plunge into the Hayward fault. Maybe an offensive breakthrough is coming in the other direction, or the defense rights the ship as it has many times before.

So we’re at a familiar position with Justin Wilcox football. Slightly intrigued. Mostly disappointed. But we’re fairly certain where this season is going at the moment, and to echo Wilcox, it’s not where we want to be.

Final grade: C-