Let’s be brutally honest Cal fans: this class is decidedly average without JKS. Bunch of 3* dudes which is what we always get. We need to work the portal HARD to have any real hope for different results next year, despite the favorable schedule. Low 3* classes will translate to 5-7 win seasons every time. Even Tedford needed that handful of 4-5* guys each year to win. His classes were 3.5*+ and that’s why we won.
The rules of recruiting have massively changed. And it is no longer a fair game. We're just not going to out-compete top-tier programs in the NIL era. We literally can't afford 5 stars or even 4 stars. That's a brutal reality unless one of y'all can pony up $20m per year, or perhaps $400m in a trust to fund an annuity. If you look at the statistics, yes 5 stars do go to the NFL at a much higher rate. 4 stars do better too. But then there's a really long tail in 3 stars. The rate of players going to the NFL in 3 stars is not that much worse than 4 stars. And the pool of 3 stars is quite large and they are affordable. You don't want to pay an 18-year-old who sits on the bench a lot of NIL money unless they have huge upside, so you're going to recruit high school players that are lottery tickets. They either develop or they get cut. And you're not going to buy a lot of lottery tickets, because that's super risky.
.
Cal's game is in the portal - paying our not large (but not small) NIL pool on guys that will play. We're going to focus our NIL on retaining our best guys and signing guys in the portal who can contribute and be brutal about cutting players who didn't develop. So you can bitch about how we're not getting higher ranked freshman recruit classes, but I'd rather be investing NIL to make our O-line not awful.
.
And if you're moaning that we don't have a better recruiting class, you're not seeing reality. If we got a really good recruiting class - say something like Oregon's - we would be paying all our NIL money to freshmen and leave no money for existing players or portal players. Everyone would literally leave. If you were a head coach and did that, you should be fired for financial irresponsibility.
Love this take. Totally agree that we need to be highly strategic/moneyball like with our budget. Which in a weird way likes that we didn’t sign JKS. It’s A LOT of money on one dude that may or may not pan out. I’d rather spend on retaining Nando and finding hogs on the line and perhaps an elite-ish OC
Thank you for your thorough analysis; many of the commenters on this site are living in a dream world. However, I can't help but wonder if down the road Cal wouldn't be better off competing against the likes of OSU, WSU, FSU, Boise St. etc.
Class rankings are skewed toward numbers. There are new regulations in NCAA that moves from 85 scholarship + unlimited walk-ons to 105 player limits. Your average roster has about 110-125 players. Cal has 115, so we need to shed 10 spots. We're graduating about 18 and this incoming class is 14. We need to shed 6 spots to even be the limit and then shed another roster spot for every recruit we want to take in the portal. So realistically, we'll shed about about a half-dozen upper classman who won't get invited back and another half dozen walk-ons. Signing about 14 is a healthy sign.
A healthy roster should see about 10-20 players added through the early signing period. An unhealthy roster will see more.
Take Syracuse as an example. They have 110 people on their roster. They have 17 players who appear to be out of eligibility. They signed 34 players in the early signing period. This means that to reach 105, they have to cut 22 players, plus another player for every additional player that you want to add after the early signing period. This implies Syracuse's roster is terrible if you are in a situation where you need to cut nearly a quarter of your team. Syracuse's recruiting ranking is much higher than Cal's but I wouldn't swap situations with them.
What happened to OL Justin Hasenhuetl? I saw in a couple of places he decommitted from GT and was supposed to potentially sign with CAL. and also the CB Tavian McNair?
I saw that also, so it sounds like he is open to the highest offer. Hopefully CAL can come up with enough NIL funds to get his commitment, as others have said, getting a decent Oline has to be the #1 priority this offseason otherwise we lose our RBs, WRs and don't give our QB a chance to be successful.
This concludes all the public verbal commitments. And Justin Wilcox already gave his press conference, so no more are expected. That being said, I will spread the baseless rumor that there is at least one silent commit still outstanding.
I told myself I wasn't gonna get too caught up in his recruitment, but then I did, so sigh. A bummer for sure. He's electric. But this is all fluid, and they've got two other QBs in this class, so you never know. So fans, keep it classy. And at least reallocate those NIL resources now. The priority is to worry about stacking the deck next year before we can worry about what follows in the years after.
With NIL and the transfer portal, skill positions can be recruited from everywhere. I just want to stock up on as many hogs as we can get. Nothing more attractive to a QB than a reliable offensive line that can keep his jersey clean.
This stings, but cannot blame him given the OC uncertainty and OL play this year. Now we need redirect all NIL from his recruitment offer to OL and keeping Fernando.
A 5* QB was never coming to a school with a lame duck HC and a revolving door of offensive coordinators, that can't protect you with a non-existent line. Don't want to be super doom and gloom but that's the reality.
I'm being real when I say we need a to 10 OC and we need to pay them enough to get them to come to CAL and the Bay Area. If it costs a million $ more a year for a top coach it will be worth it if we start recruiting better and winning 10 games a year. If we aren't willing to spend for coaching and player talent then we are just fooling ourselves. It costs money to build a winning program, but winning programs pay for themselves and MORE. Just look at the Bama model and what happened when Bill Battle brought in Nick Saban. The football team netted the school $85m per year, honors/advanced placement admits went from 15% to 70% and tuition went up. It's is the most successful example of football as a business in college sports to this day.
More, what's frustrating to me is that we invested millions upon millions of dollars to grow Harmon-> Haas and upgrade Memorial for the 21st century, and nearly as soon as they were erected, new administrations came in and deprioritized the programs needed to fill them. Absurd management and waste.
Is it though? I feel like their actions have mostly treated those as sunk costs, with the exception of the desperation of the fall of the P12 and recognizing that the hurt could become even worse. A succession of half-measures has put us in the position we’re in now. Never both feet in.
Perhaps, but how does half a billion in costs at a public university that has financial issues become sunk costs? I think it’s crimping the CAL budget bigly and there’s no easy solution. They can’t sell memorial stadium because they can’t do night activities there except for a few games each year and there’s no parking. The Bears are the only football team north of Stanford. The Raiders are gone, the A’s are gone, the 49ers moved to Santa Clara, and the Warriors moved to San Francisco. We have a huge market that we can benefit from if we create a winning program.
Oregon is another shining example of how athletics can impact admissions. It's become one of the most popular schools to apply to over the past decade or two. I wonder how much of that cost/benefit disconnect is because of our aloofness, ie. "We already get the best of the best academic candidates. Why do we need to invest to get more?" And while I agree with you, I also think wonder if that investment may benefit other schools that lack our academic reputation more greatly.
He has updated his highlights for his senior year. Someone that big should not be that quick. He also brings a giant load of nasty in his game. If you like watching a grown man hulk-smash little children, this the highlight reel for you:
Let’s be brutally honest Cal fans: this class is decidedly average without JKS. Bunch of 3* dudes which is what we always get. We need to work the portal HARD to have any real hope for different results next year, despite the favorable schedule. Low 3* classes will translate to 5-7 win seasons every time. Even Tedford needed that handful of 4-5* guys each year to win. His classes were 3.5*+ and that’s why we won.
The rules of recruiting have massively changed. And it is no longer a fair game. We're just not going to out-compete top-tier programs in the NIL era. We literally can't afford 5 stars or even 4 stars. That's a brutal reality unless one of y'all can pony up $20m per year, or perhaps $400m in a trust to fund an annuity. If you look at the statistics, yes 5 stars do go to the NFL at a much higher rate. 4 stars do better too. But then there's a really long tail in 3 stars. The rate of players going to the NFL in 3 stars is not that much worse than 4 stars. And the pool of 3 stars is quite large and they are affordable. You don't want to pay an 18-year-old who sits on the bench a lot of NIL money unless they have huge upside, so you're going to recruit high school players that are lottery tickets. They either develop or they get cut. And you're not going to buy a lot of lottery tickets, because that's super risky.
.
Cal's game is in the portal - paying our not large (but not small) NIL pool on guys that will play. We're going to focus our NIL on retaining our best guys and signing guys in the portal who can contribute and be brutal about cutting players who didn't develop. So you can bitch about how we're not getting higher ranked freshman recruit classes, but I'd rather be investing NIL to make our O-line not awful.
.
And if you're moaning that we don't have a better recruiting class, you're not seeing reality. If we got a really good recruiting class - say something like Oregon's - we would be paying all our NIL money to freshmen and leave no money for existing players or portal players. Everyone would literally leave. If you were a head coach and did that, you should be fired for financial irresponsibility.
Love this take. Totally agree that we need to be highly strategic/moneyball like with our budget. Which in a weird way likes that we didn’t sign JKS. It’s A LOT of money on one dude that may or may not pan out. I’d rather spend on retaining Nando and finding hogs on the line and perhaps an elite-ish OC
Thank you for your thorough analysis; many of the commenters on this site are living in a dream world. However, I can't help but wonder if down the road Cal wouldn't be better off competing against the likes of OSU, WSU, FSU, Boise St. etc.
Class rankings are skewed toward numbers. There are new regulations in NCAA that moves from 85 scholarship + unlimited walk-ons to 105 player limits. Your average roster has about 110-125 players. Cal has 115, so we need to shed 10 spots. We're graduating about 18 and this incoming class is 14. We need to shed 6 spots to even be the limit and then shed another roster spot for every recruit we want to take in the portal. So realistically, we'll shed about about a half-dozen upper classman who won't get invited back and another half dozen walk-ons. Signing about 14 is a healthy sign.
A healthy roster should see about 10-20 players added through the early signing period. An unhealthy roster will see more.
Take Syracuse as an example. They have 110 people on their roster. They have 17 players who appear to be out of eligibility. They signed 34 players in the early signing period. This means that to reach 105, they have to cut 22 players, plus another player for every additional player that you want to add after the early signing period. This implies Syracuse's roster is terrible if you are in a situation where you need to cut nearly a quarter of your team. Syracuse's recruiting ranking is much higher than Cal's but I wouldn't swap situations with them.
Someone said somewhere that our class is ranked 74. That’s terrible. We need another stellar portal class and for that we need NIL money.
What happened to OL Justin Hasenhuetl? I saw in a couple of places he decommitted from GT and was supposed to potentially sign with CAL. and also the CB Tavian McNair?
I think the answer is here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gdwhu60XwAANxj5?format=jpg&name=large
I saw that also, so it sounds like he is open to the highest offer. Hopefully CAL can come up with enough NIL funds to get his commitment, as others have said, getting a decent Oline has to be the #1 priority this offseason otherwise we lose our RBs, WRs and don't give our QB a chance to be successful.
Cal signs Aiden Manutai, fending off Nebraska for this coveted safety out of Hawai'i.
https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1864388017915613666
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-adds-the-highly-recruited-3-hawaii
This concludes all the public verbal commitments. And Justin Wilcox already gave his press conference, so no more are expected. That being said, I will spread the baseless rumor that there is at least one silent commit still outstanding.
Fernando Mendoza? He must be the silent commit.
LeBron Williams joins the D-line
https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1864378229618036877
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-adds-2025-3-hawaii-dl
Bad news, Sagapolutele flipped to Oregon. Could have seen it coming but still stings.
Post here as well: https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/five-star-qb-jaron-keawe-sagapolutele
Thanks, missed that post.
You commented before that post
I told myself I wasn't gonna get too caught up in his recruitment, but then I did, so sigh. A bummer for sure. He's electric. But this is all fluid, and they've got two other QBs in this class, so you never know. So fans, keep it classy. And at least reallocate those NIL resources now. The priority is to worry about stacking the deck next year before we can worry about what follows in the years after.
With NIL and the transfer portal, skill positions can be recruited from everywhere. I just want to stock up on as many hogs as we can get. Nothing more attractive to a QB than a reliable offensive line that can keep his jersey clean.
Especially a center.
This stings, but cannot blame him given the OC uncertainty and OL play this year. Now we need redirect all NIL from his recruitment offer to OL and keeping Fernando.
Doom
A 5* QB was never coming to a school with a lame duck HC and a revolving door of offensive coordinators, that can't protect you with a non-existent line. Don't want to be super doom and gloom but that's the reality.
DL Ike Okafor joins an area of need
https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1864354255014171092
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-recruiting-commit-ike-okafor
Mike Klisiewicz rebuilds the Hogs
https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1864338214699585942
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-recruiting-commit-michael-klisiewicz
CB Jae'on Young joins the latest cohort of the Takers
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864330439483380176
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-recruiting-commit-jaeon-young
Jake Houseworth joins the TE room - fast and elusive in the mold of Endries & Dyches
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864331909691789414
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-lands-the-commitment
Local boy makes good - John Tofi Jr reloads the OLB roster
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864329070571606277
Verbal commit announcement:
https://x.com/johntofijr/status/1839487607224590467
Anthony League joins Cal's runningback room
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864328144116961555
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-recruiting-commit-anthony-league
Can't wait for that first "In a League of His Own" headline.
Remember Fancy Dancy!
The next in is Tre Harrison, an athlete who probably joins the secondary
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864325131285483764
Original commitment post:
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-adds-2025-3-socal-db-tre-harrison
I just want to know who our new OC is going to be!
Who would you like to see as OC? Be realistic given Cal's situation, and cost of living in the Bay Area.
I'm being real when I say we need a to 10 OC and we need to pay them enough to get them to come to CAL and the Bay Area. If it costs a million $ more a year for a top coach it will be worth it if we start recruiting better and winning 10 games a year. If we aren't willing to spend for coaching and player talent then we are just fooling ourselves. It costs money to build a winning program, but winning programs pay for themselves and MORE. Just look at the Bama model and what happened when Bill Battle brought in Nick Saban. The football team netted the school $85m per year, honors/advanced placement admits went from 15% to 70% and tuition went up. It's is the most successful example of football as a business in college sports to this day.
More, what's frustrating to me is that we invested millions upon millions of dollars to grow Harmon-> Haas and upgrade Memorial for the 21st century, and nearly as soon as they were erected, new administrations came in and deprioritized the programs needed to fill them. Absurd management and waste.
Agree, but paying off the amortized debt on those upgrades is going to force the admin and faculty to wake up.
Is it though? I feel like their actions have mostly treated those as sunk costs, with the exception of the desperation of the fall of the P12 and recognizing that the hurt could become even worse. A succession of half-measures has put us in the position we’re in now. Never both feet in.
It will be interesting to see who Lyons hires to replace Colorado Springs’ favorite son.
And likewise who THAT candidate hires to replace Justin Wilcox.
Then we’ll know just how all in we’re gonna be.
Perhaps, but how does half a billion in costs at a public university that has financial issues become sunk costs? I think it’s crimping the CAL budget bigly and there’s no easy solution. They can’t sell memorial stadium because they can’t do night activities there except for a few games each year and there’s no parking. The Bears are the only football team north of Stanford. The Raiders are gone, the A’s are gone, the 49ers moved to Santa Clara, and the Warriors moved to San Francisco. We have a huge market that we can benefit from if we create a winning program.
Oregon is another shining example of how athletics can impact admissions. It's become one of the most popular schools to apply to over the past decade or two. I wonder how much of that cost/benefit disconnect is because of our aloofness, ie. "We already get the best of the best academic candidates. Why do we need to invest to get more?" And while I agree with you, I also think wonder if that investment may benefit other schools that lack our academic reputation more greatly.
I just know this: winning sells tickets and gets prime time TV slots which pay a whole lot more than ESPN2
Up next is Meyer Swinney, Bastian's brother who played WR/TE in Minnesota
https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1864324265778270428
Original commitment post
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/cal-football-lands-a-commitment-from-513
First new National Signing Day news: Top JUCO edge rusher Odera Okaka commits to the California Golden Bears.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DDKRxASpWSi/
https://x.com/odera_ao/status/1864321661425873303
New post here: https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/san-mateo-edge-rusher-odera-okaka
Update: he's signed
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864332849199108324
Third signing is Ben Howard, OL from Utah
https://x.com/CalFootball/status/1864320126516121986
Original commitment post here
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/california-golden-bears-recruiting-ben-howard/
He has updated his highlights for his senior year. Someone that big should not be that quick. He also brings a giant load of nasty in his game. If you like watching a grown man hulk-smash little children, this the highlight reel for you:
http://www.hudl.com/v/2QCQTd